UFC on Fox 2 - Predictions

The UFC on Fox 2 event is taking place tonight, and I am pumped. If you havn't been following, there have been a number of changes to the card in the past several weeks. Mark Munoz was originally supposed to face Chael Sonnen, with the winner getting a shot at the middleweight title, currently held by Anderson Silva. Munoz is injured however, and was replaced by Michael Bisping, who was originally supposed to be fighting Demian Maia. Maia will now be facing undefeated prospect Chris Weidman, who was promoted onto the main card after it got shuffled around. These are the three fights on the main card, and below are my predictions for the outcomes. I picked a couple of the undercard fights that will be of interest too, so if you have any of watching them, you definitely should. So anyway, first off:

Michael Johnson vs. Shane Roller

Michael Johnson will be familiar to anyone who watched season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter, with coaches Josh Koscheck and Georges St-Pierre. Johnson was a standout contestant on the show, losing to Jonathan Brookins by decision in the final, after almost finishing him several times in the first round. Johnson has great standup skills, and he could have the edge against standout wrestler Shane Roller. Roller is going into the fight with superior wrestling and submission skills however, and so if he gets tired of standing with Johnson, he will have the better chance of controlling the fight. Add to this the fact that 5 of Johnson's 6 career losses have come by way of submission, and that could be the key to the fight right there.

Prediction: Shane Roller by submission.

Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz

This is a tough one for me. Similar to Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer from last weeks UFC on FX event, you have two guys who can work in any situation squaring off. Both these guys have respectable standup, so expect much of it to be contested on the feet. Lentz also has serious wrestling credentials, and if he doesn't like how fighting on the feet is going he will probably be able to take Dunham down at will. Dunham has a great submission game however, so if the fight goes to the ground I can see him tapping Lentz out. This could be easier said than done though, and after 28 career fights Lentz has only been submitted once. A difficult fight to call, but I am going to have to go with Dunham to take this one.

Prediction: Evan Dunham by decision.

Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

Demian Maia is known as easily one of the best submission guys in the UFC, and his fight against Michael Bisping was going to be an interesting one, considering that Bisping has never been submitted. New opponent Weidman isn't as big a name as Bisping, but is young and undefeated, so we could still see a great fight. It is hard to believe it, but Maia hasn't scored a submission victory since 2009, with his last six fights having gone to decision. This could be due to the majority of his opponents time being spent preparing to block his submission game. Since Weidman is a last minute opponent, he will not have had as much time to prepare as he probably would have liked, so this could give Maia the opportunity that he needs to get the tap.

Prediction: Demian Maia by submission.

Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

I make no secret of the fact that Chael Sonnen is one of my favourite fighters, I love his trash talk and his rhymes, his insults and his ability to hype a fight. I also happen to think he is a great fighter, and his ability to take opponents down and beat them on the ground is second to none. That makes this an interesting fight, as Bisping has been known to have great takedown defense, and will no doubt be focusing his attention on trying to keep the fight standing, where he no doubt feels he has the advantage. Sonnen likes to be unpredictable however, and I could see him keeping portions of the fight standing just to keep people guessing, and perhaps because he does not have as much respect for the boxing of Bisping as some.

Bisping has also stated several times that he feels he has an underrated ground game, having never really been tested off his feet. We are definitely going to get a chance to see this, as I just don't see him being able to stop Chael's takedowns. Considering that Jason "Mayhem" Miller took Bisping down in the first round of their fight in December, and that his takedowns aren't anywhere in the same league as Chael's, it looks like this could be Chael's fight for the taking. This is Chael's fight as long as he doesn't get too cocky and let himself get dragged into a boxing match, and as long as he doesn't get triangle choked (fingers crossed). I expect Chael to take this one in a one sided beatdown that will put a smile on the face of Mayhem Miller and Jorge Rivera fans across the world.

Prediction: Chael Sonnen by decision.

Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

This light heavyweight bout is another difficult one to call. It seems like the winner is going to get to fight Jon Jones at UFC 145 in April, so I am rooting for Rashad so that we can finally see an end to his beef with Jones. Davis is undefeated however, and has better wrestling than Rashad, who has always had his usually superior wrestling to fall back on should a fight not go his way. Davis is a young and hungry athlete, but it does seem like he may have been moved up the ladder a little soon, however well he seems to be dealing with the attention. His game is also not as well rounded as that of Rashad, so the pressure is on him to control the direction of the fight and keep it where he feels most comfortable.

This fight seems to favour Rashad, and his superior standup could see him get a KO or TKO to add to his slowly growing highlight reel. If Davis manages to keep Rashad down he could frustrate him enough to get the decision victory, but I don't see this happening. Unless Davis pulls out a shocker of a submission, and becomes the first man to tap out Rashad, I think this is all Evans, going on to face Jones in April.

Prediction: Rashad Evans by KO/TKO.

UFC on Fox 2 - Weigh-ins

The weigh-ins for tomorrow/tonights UFC on Fox 2 event were tonight, and all the fighters made weight without any issues. The weigh-in is different than those usually held before PPV's, with Kenny Florian and Jay Glazer commentating in the background throughout. As with the press conference yesterday, some great staredowns between the main event competitors, and some of the undercard fighters too. I had almost forgotten because he hasn't fought in so long, but Phil Davis has one of the craziest builds I have ever seen, his shoulders could probably cut glass. See here for yourself with the full weigh-ins, beginning about 18 minutes into the video.

UFC on Fox 2 - Press Conference

The pre-fight press conference for this Saturdays UFC on Fox 2 event aired tonight, and we got a chance to see some verbal sparring between the fighters before things get physical on Saturday. There were some good moments, with noticeable tension between the main event competitors, and it got me pretty pumped for the event. One of the most interesting notes from the conference was the championship belt that Chael Sonnen brought to the table, which I think is a great idea, considering his repeated claims that he is the real middleweight champion of the UFC. Michael Bisping didn't bring any props with him, but he brought his patented quick wit, and used it to sting Sonnen more than once, certainly not something we are used to seeing. The video is below, and skip to the final two minutes for some intense stare downs, especially between the four main event fighters.

The press conference begins at about 24:18 of this video, with some pretty good hype videos from about 11:50 onward.

Case Study - Best Years in MMA history

With 2011 over, there has been plenty of discussion about whether the light heavyweight champion of the UFC, Jon Jones, had the best year that anyone has ever had in Mixed Martial Arts. There is never going to be a comprehensive answer for this, since it is a matter of opinion, and most MMA fans have their best year ever decided on. I am going to look at a few other great years that fighters have had, and how they compare to the 2011 that Jones had. There will no doubt be fighters missing, and some people may disagree with the choices, but feel free to enter your own choices after you give this list a look.

Jon Jones - 2011

2011 saw Jon Jones turn from a rising star in the UFC light heavyweight division to a legitimate contender, and from that to the youngest champion in UFC history. The year began for Jones in February, where he faced undefeated prospect Ryan Bader, with the winner possibly going to be next in line after Rashad Evans to challenge then champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Jones ran through the formerly dominant Bader, and won by guillotine choke in the second round. Immediately after this it was announced that Rashad Evans was injured and could not challenge next for the title, so Jones was offered the chance to fight Shogun Rua with only six weeks notice. 

Not only did Jones accept the fight, but he dominated Shogun, a man considered at one point in his career to be the #1 light heavyweight fighter in the world. In March 2011, Jones Jones was 23 years old, and had just become the youngest champion in UFC history. If this wasn't good enough, Jones fought again twice in 2011, against opponents rightfully considered to be legends of MMA. In September Jones fought Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, dominating him just as he had Shogun, and tapping him out in the fourth round. In December, Jones fought Lyoto Machida, a man who for years had been considered as close to unbeatable as any fighter could be. Machida tested Jones for the first round of the fight, forcing him to retreat with strikes, but in the second round Jones found his rhythm and choked Machida unconscious to close off one of the greatest years that MMA has ever seen. 

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua - 2005

Since coming to the UFC in 2007 Shogun has had a mixed record, amassing a 4-4 record from his fights. This is disappointing for a fighter with the career accolades of Shogun, but when you consider the quality of his opponents in this time, he could have done much worse. Currently coming off a November loss to Dan Henderson in what is considered to be one of the greatest fights of all time, Shogun is still considered in the top five, and maybe even top three, light heavyweights in the world by many people. In 2005 however, Shogun went from a person of interest to a seemingly unstoppable force. 

Coming off a February win over Hiromitsu Namekawa in Japan, Shogun entered into the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix Tournament. He faced all big names in this tournament, beating Rampage Jackson in the opening round, and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in the quarterfinal two months later. If this wasn't enough, in August he faced Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona in the same night, finishing both men with strikes and winning the tournament. This is definitely a contender for best year of all time, and many fans are still hoping to see another year like this one for Shogun. At only 30 years of age, Shogun might yet still deliver. 

Georges St-Pierre - 2005

As the consistently ranked #2 pound for pound fighter in the world on many lists, St-Pierre has been a reliable member of the UFC roster since 2004. A huge Pay Per View draw, St-Pierre has been criticised by many for not fighting often enough, fighting only twice in 2010, and once in 2011. There was a time however, that GSP fought as much as almost anyone else, and in 2005 he was focused entirely on becoming a force to be reckoned with in the UFC. GSP fought four times in 2005, beating opponents Dave Strasser, Jason Miller, Frank Trigg and Sean Sherk in that order. An impressive year for GSP coming off his (then) only ever loss, against Matt Hughes in 2004. Probably the best year in the career of Georges St-Pierre to date.

Matt Hughes - 2000

If you were a new fan of MMA it would be easy to look at Matt Hughes' record and disregard him as another mid level fighter. After all, he is only 5-5 in his last 10 UFC fights, not a record many people would be boasting about. For years however, Hughes dominated the welterweight division of worldwide MMA, and is considered by plenty of people to be the greatest welterweight of all time. Hughes fought a staggering ten times this year, including what must have been a crazy night in November, where he faced and beat three opponents in the one night, finishing one by strikes, one by submission, and one by stoppage due to injury.

Hughes was looking to close out the year on a clean sheet after going 9-0, but a December bout with Dennis "Superman" Hallman stopped him in his tracks. Stopping him with an armbar in only 20 seconds, Hallman managed to destroy all the momentum Hughes had going throughout his previous fights, and end on a bad note what would otherwise have been a perfect year. 

Don Frye - 1996

If you don't know Don Frye, you might know his moustache. Or alternatively, you might know his absolutely brutal 2002 fight with Yoshihoro Takayama, voted Fight of the Year, and a fight every MMA fan should see. Frye's professional debut and arguably finest year came in 1996 however, and this really was a year to watch. If you were surprised that Matt Hughes fought 10 times in one year, and three times in one night, you will be interested to hear that Frye not only fought 11 times in 1996, but fought three times in one night THREE times during this year. He actually fought three times on the night of his professional debut, and his three wins that night did not even add up to one full five minute round. 

As impressive as this is, add in the fact that Frye won two UFC tournaments in this one year, and fought three times a night in order to win both. He also never went out of the first round in any of those six fights. The lone blot in this year is his TKO loss to Mark Coleman, which put his record for this year at 10-1, and stopped him winning what would surely have been a historic third UFC tournament in one year. Probably the best debut year in history.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira - 2002

More commonly known as "Big Nog", Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is the bigger of the two Nogueira brothers, and an MMA legend who currently competes in the UFC heavyweight division. You might last have seen him get his arm brutally snapped by Frank Mir, but in 2002 he had a great year, fighting five times and winning each one. His most notable opponents in this year were Bob Sapp and Dan Henderson, and even though Sapp is currently on a massive career skid, in 2002 he was considered to be a very tough opponent and big prospect. Dan Henderson is of course a big win for anyone, and their fight gave Big Nog a chance to avenge a loss to him two years earlier. After tapping Hendo out with an armbar in the third round, Big Nog certainly did this. 

Having won the first ever Pride Heavyweight Championship in late 2001, four of Big Nog's five bouts in 2002 were in defence of his belt, which is almost unheard of in current MMA competition. Unfortunately his winning ways did not continue in 2003, as he lost his belt to Fedor Emelianenko, the man who would beat him for the title once again in 2004. A great year nonetheless, and definitely worth considering as one of the best of all time.

These are some of the best years that competitors have had in MMA history. There are plenty of fighters who may have had years that deserve to make the list, and i'm sure there is a Gracie somewhere with a record that puts all these to shame, so maybe I will put up a second edition some other time. For now however, these are definitely some of the best years in MMA history, and probably the best years in the career of each fighter featured. 

UFC on Fox 2 Build-Up - Has Bisping Woken a Sleeping Giant?

In the build up to this Saturdays UFC on Fox 2 event, the main event competitors have been unusually quiet regarding their opponents. Light heavyweights Rashad Evans and Phil Davis are headlining, and after their heated words at press conferences announcing the event it was expected that we would see a campaign almost as personal as the ongoing feud between Evans and champ Jon Jones. Both have been quiet however, but last I heard they had come to a stalemate on threats and agreed it would be settled in the Octagon, so perhaps they are now prepared to let their plentiful skills speak for them on Saturday. That's fine with me, as nobody fighting on the same card as Chael Sonnen can expect to get trash talking headlines ahead of him.

Speaking of Chael Sonnen however, the master of the MMA one liner has been oddly silent since it was announced that he would be fighting Michael Bisping on the Fox card, rather than now injured Mark Munoz. In interviews he has insisted he doesn't have a problem with Bisping, but this has never seemed to hold him back before, and I would have expected him to use some of the plentiful ammo at his disposal. Bisping is one of the few fighters people dislike as much as Chael, and possibly even more so. While it could have been a novelty to see Sonnen cheered going into a fight, maybe the self proclaimed "bad guy" feels more motivated by boos than cheers. Or maybe, he is just saving his A game for the press events leading up to the fight.

Bisping seems to be having no problem expressing how he feels about Chael, however. On an Inside MMA segment this week, he sent some trash talking Sonnen's way, including telling the panel that Chael only has one testicle, due to past steroid use. Here is the clip below, and I can't wait to hear how Chael reacts later this week.

UFC on FX 1 Quick Recap - Predictions vs. Results

Friday saw the first UFC on FX show of 2012, and if the bar has been set by Friday's card, we are in for a great year of fights. There were some noticeable differences between this show and the usual PPV layout, most notably the absence of Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg on commentary. Kenny Florian and Jon Anik did a great job however, and I think once we have a little while to get used to it a change in commentary won't be an issue. As for the fights themselves, here are the results and how they fit in with my predictions.

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

This was an important fight for both guys, but especially for Barry, because a loss here would have put him on a three fight losing streak, which can often signal the end of a fighters UFC career. Add to this the fact that Barry has had trouble with submission defense in the past, and Morecraft is a respected submission guy, and this could have spelled disaster for the career of Pat Barry. This was averted however, and Barry showed off some greatly improved submission defense, before scoring a great KO at 3.38 of the first round.

Prediction: Pat Barry by KO.
Result: Pat Barry by KO.

Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian

Jared Papazian was a considerable underdog going into his UFC debut with Easton, but he will certainly have got the attention of those watching, hanging in with a tough guy like Easton for a full three rounds. These guys really went at it, and in my opinion were robbed of the Fight of the Night bonus, which went to the Barry vs. Morecraft fight. Either of these guys could get the bonus next time however, as both are exciting to watch and should have interesting next fights. I would love to see Easton face John Dodson again, if only because Easton does not seem like a likeable guy, and I would love to see Dodson get a chance to steamroll through him like he has his most recent opponents.

Prediction: Mike Easton by submission.
Result: Mike Easton by decision.

Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

This one ended sooner than most people expected it to. I was expecting a second round, and probably half a third, before one of the fighters got stopped. The commentators called Josh Neer something of an honourary Diaz brother, as apparently he trains with Nick and Nate. This really showed, as he scored a submission win over Ludwig with a guillotine choke that looked eerily similar to the one that Nate Diaz beat Melvin Guillard with back in 2009. A good fight, though not one that puts either of these welterweights much closer to title contention. If Neer racks up a couple more impressive wins however, he could be in the title contender mix sooner rather than later, but how seriously he is taken by the UFC will be indicated when his next opponent is announced.

Prediction: Josh Neer by KO.
Result: Josh Neer by submission (guillotine choke).

Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard

This bout annoyed me in the buildup to the event, as it just seemed like it had been set up for Miller to beat Guillard. If they take a scrappy submission artist such as Miller and put him in with a KO specialist with basically no ground game such as Guillard, they had to have had a preferred outcome in mind. With Melvin being such an underdog going into this fight I really wanted him to win, and show that he is a real lightweight contender rather than a stepping stone. Unfortunately this is exactly what this fight made him, an obstacle built just to be knocked down, so that people could forget about Miller's loss to Ben Henderson back in August, and once again take him seriously as a threat in the division.

This is not to take anything away from Miller however, who has shown an ability to hang in there with some of the best opponents the UFC has to offer. I was astounded at his iron chin at the beginning of the fight too, he ate up some shots from heavy handed Guillard that would have stopped nearly any fighter. He certainly deserved his submission win, and will no doubt be considered as an opponent for the winner of the Henderson/Edgar title fight next month. Before this happened however, I would love to see him either try to avenge his loss against Gray Maynard, or face Nate Diaz. I would prefer the Diaz fight, since seeing Maynard potentially face Edgar for a fourth time would be just too much. As for Guillard, I would love to see him take on Donald Cerrone, in what I am sure would be a shoe in for Fight of the Night at any event. A disappointing result for Guillard at this event, but I think both these fighters still have bright futures ahead of them.

Prediction: Melvin Guillard by TKO/KO.
Result: Jim Miller by submission (rear naked choke).