Sunday, 22 January 2012

UFC on FX 1 Quick Recap - Predictions vs. Results


Friday saw the first UFC on FX show of 2012, and if the bar has been set by Friday's card, we are in for a great year of fights. There were some noticeable differences between this show and the usual PPV layout, most notably the absence of Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg on commentary. Kenny Florian and Jon Anik did a great job however, and I think once we have a little while to get used to it a change in commentary won't be an issue. As for the fights themselves, here are the results and how they fit in with my predictions.

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

This was an important fight for both guys, but especially for Barry, because a loss here would have put him on a three fight losing streak, which can often signal the end of a fighters UFC career. Add to this the fact that Barry has had trouble with submission defense in the past, and Morecraft is a respected submission guy, and this could have spelled disaster for the career of Pat Barry. This was averted however, and Barry showed off some greatly improved submission defense, before scoring a great KO at 3.38 of the first round.


Prediction: Pat Barry by KO.
Result: Pat Barry by KO.

Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian

Jared Papazian was a considerable underdog going into his UFC debut with Easton, but he will certainly have got the attention of those watching, hanging in with a tough guy like Easton for a full three rounds. These guys really went at it, and in my opinion were robbed of the Fight of the Night bonus, which went to the Barry vs. Morecraft fight. Either of these guys could get the bonus next time however, as both are exciting to watch and should have interesting next fights. I would love to see Easton face John Dodson again, if only because Easton does not seem like a likeable guy, and I would love to see Dodson get a chance to steamroll through him like he has his most recent opponents.


Prediction: Mike Easton by submission.
Result: Mike Easton by decision.

Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

This one ended sooner than most people expected it to. I was expecting a second round, and probably half a third, before one of the fighters got stopped. The commentators called Josh Neer something of an honourary Diaz brother, as apparently he trains with Nick and Nate. This really showed, as he scored a submission win over Ludwig with a guillotine choke that looked eerily similar to the one that Nate Diaz beat Melvin Guillard with back in 2009. A good fight, though not one that puts either of these welterweights much closer to title contention. If Neer racks up a couple more impressive wins however, he could be in the title contender mix sooner rather than later, but how seriously he is taken by the UFC will be indicated when his next opponent is announced.


Prediction: Josh Neer by KO.
Result: Josh Neer by submission (guillotine choke).

Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard

This bout annoyed me in the buildup to the event, as it just seemed like it had been set up for Miller to beat Guillard. If they take a scrappy submission artist such as Miller and put him in with a KO specialist with basically no ground game such as Guillard, they had to have had a preferred outcome in mind. With Melvin being such an underdog going into this fight I really wanted him to win, and show that he is a real lightweight contender rather than a stepping stone. Unfortunately this is exactly what this fight made him, an obstacle built just to be knocked down, so that people could forget about Miller's loss to Ben Henderson back in August, and once again take him seriously as a threat in the division.


This is not to take anything away from Miller however, who has shown an ability to hang in there with some of the best opponents the UFC has to offer. I was astounded at his iron chin at the beginning of the fight too, he ate up some shots from heavy handed Guillard that would have stopped nearly any fighter. He certainly deserved his submission win, and will no doubt be considered as an opponent for the winner of the Henderson/Edgar title fight next month. Before this happened however, I would love to see him either try to avenge his loss against Gray Maynard, or face Nate Diaz. I would prefer the Diaz fight, since seeing Maynard potentially face Edgar for a fourth time would be just too much. As for Guillard, I would love to see him take on Donald Cerrone, in what I am sure would be a shoe in for Fight of the Night at any event. A disappointing result for Guillard at this event, but I think both these fighters still have bright futures ahead of them.


Prediction: Melvin Guillard by TKO/KO.
Result: Jim Miller by submission (rear naked choke).

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