UFC on FX predictions

Tonight marks the beginning of the MMA heavy 2012 that I expect to see, as smaller cards such as this one begin to fill in the gaps between PPV’s. This card features some good fighters, but most are only known to dedicated fans rather than the general public. I expect some great fights from tonight however, and here are my predictions for the outcomes.

Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

This battle of the heavyweights is a must win for both fighters, as both have underwhelmed to some extent in the UFC. At only 5’11 Barry is the smallest heavyweight in the division, and will be severely outsized by the 6’6 Morecraft. And though Barry lost two of his past three, they weren’t devastating losses, since he was beating both his opponents before they staged comebacks. In the case of Cheick Kongo, he was all but unconscious before surging forward and getting a KO on Barry. Morecraft is by far the less recognised fighter of the two, and his 1-2 record in the UFC leaves alot to be desired. I expect this fight to go down much the same way as Morecraft’s fight against Matt Mitrione back in June did, with Morecraft being bested on the feet, but unable to capitalise if he brings it to the ground. Pat Barry isn’t exactly a top tier heavyweight, but I think he has it in him to beat an opponent of the calibre of Morecraft.

Prediction: Pat Barry by KO.

Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian

Easton is coming into this bout with an impressive 11-1 record, more notably holding a win over John Dodson, who won the most recent season of the ultimate fighter. With how much of a phenom Dodson was on the show, I expect big things from anyone who can beat him, even if it was by split decision. Papazian is making his UFC debut, and though he is a last minute replacement for injured Ken Stone, he is a scrapper and not to be counted out offhand. Both these fighters are young, and Papazian has gone through three five round fights in 2011, so expect cardio to be a non-issue. I can see this going the full three rounds, or else BJJ black belt Easton scoring a submission win. I am going with Papazian to get over zealous in the attack, and for Easton to capitalise and catch him out.

Prediction: Mike Easton by submission.

Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

Both of these welterweights have a wealth of experience, and have been around the block enough that they are bound to respect each others credentials. With Ludwig now recognised as having the fastest KO in UFC history, many people will no doubt expect him to deliver, but despite this he is not primarily considered a KO artist, being rather a well rounded fighter who happens to have great standup. Both of these fighters have submission credentials, having both won and lost by them, but I expect this to be contested mostly on the feet. While I wish well for Ludwig as he is coming off a win over one of my favourite fighters in Amir Sadollah, I expect the heavy hands of Neer to win out in a great strike fest.

Prediction: Josh Neer by KO.

Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard

This lightweight bout has me torn. I am a fan of both these fighters, and see no shortage of ways in which each could beat the other. Melvin Guillard has some of the best pure athleticism in the UFC, and his lightning quick hands could be a worry for any fighter in the division. His submission defence has shown some serious holes over the years however, with eight of his nine losses coming by tapout. With Miller having 11 of his 20 career wins by submission, this fight seems set up for Guillard to get tapped for the second time in two fights. I can see this playing out in a similar manner to Guillard’s 2009 bout against Nate Diaz, where he got the better of the standup, but made a mistake and ended up getting guillotined in the second round.

Alternatively however, Guillard could have worked on his takedown defense, and keep Miller standing similar to how Gray Maynard did in 2009. If this happens, he can pick Miller apart with his superior striking. With this said however, Miller is no one trick pony, and his standup is definetly to be respected, even by a KO artist such as Guillard. Miller’s pitbull mentality could also see him pulling out a decision win, as if it goes the distance I think it will definitely end in his favour. This is a serious toss up for me, and I really hope for Guillard’s sake that he has worked on his strategy since the Joe Lauzon fight, especially his submission defence and habit of being over eager and over confident. People are counting out Guillard, but I am going to go with the long shot and have him be the first man to finish Miller.

Prediction: Melvin Guillard by TKO/KO.

Chael Sonnen Watch! Munoz out, Bisping in.

Dana White yesterday made the announcement that Mark Munoz was injured, and that the new middleweight #1 contender spot will be contested between Chael Sonnen and Michael Bisping. Bisping was previously scheduled to face submission specialist Demian Maia, and was seemingly another fight or two away from top contender status. While I am majorly excited for this fight, it is a shame that it takes place in only ten days, as the war of words between Sonnen and Bisping in the run up would no doubt have been the stuff of legend.

Bisping has already reacted to the news, stating "Chael Sonnen cannot knock me out. He can't submit me, either."Sonnen himself has so far avoided trash talk, saying that Bisping has earned his spot and that he has never been a part of the anti-Bisping bandwagon.  This could be true, though I seem to recall Sonnen being one of the many who challenged Bisping after the spitting controversy following UFC 127 in February last year. I expect Sonnen to deliver some trash talk soon, and the press conferences around the fight are sure to be epic with these two involved.

UFC 142 Quick Recap.

UFC 142 took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil this past Saturday. It was a great card for those who like quick finishes, as only one of the five main card fights made it fast the first round, and none went to decision. I will give a quick look over who won, and how many of my predictions beforehand were correct.

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim.

This was the first fight of the main card, featuring two up and coming lightweights. Due to Etim's great submission history I predicted him to finish by submission, but it turns out I couldn't have been more wrong. In the only fight to make it to the 3rd (or even 2nd) round, Edson Barboza knocked out Etim with an anbolutely devastating spinning wheel kick. Etim had been a game opponent up until this point, but unluckily for him he will now be remembered as the unfortunate victim of the first spinning wheel kick KO in UFC history.
Prediction: Terry Etim by submission.
Result: Edson Barboza by decapitation (spinning wheel kick).

Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater.

This welterweight bout is one that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons, as Erick Silva was disqualified after an apparent TKO of Prater 29 seconds into the first round. The DQ came after alleged blows to the back of the head by Silva. Whether you agree or not, Silva will no doubt be considered the real winner by matchmakers in the UFC, so expect this to show in his next fight pick.
Prediction: Erick Silva by submission.
Result: Carlo Prater by DQ (illegal back of the head shots).

Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and looking back I probably should have seen this one coming. With six of his 14 career wins now having come via knee bar, Rousimar Palhares is rising through the middleweight ranks as a submissions specialist to be feared. Needing only one minute and three seconds to maneuver Massenzio into a knee bar, I am tempted to make my next prediction as Palhares to win by leg based submission, even before I see who his opponent is.
Prediction: Rousimar Palhares by decision.
Result: Rousimar Palhares by submission (knee bar).

Anthony Johnson vs. Vitor Belfort.

This bout was a serious headache for the UFC, with apparent health issues meaning that Johnson weighed in at 197 pounds instead of the target 185. I said in my prediction that he might not be able to hang with the bigger guys after fighting at welterweight for so long, and it turns out I was right. I won't rag on Johnson too much, since Dana White announced afterwards that he plans to cut him from the UFC, so he got his comeuppance for his lack of professionalism. Vitor Belfort took it to Johnson, and though he ate a few hard shots in the process, he managed to choke out Johnson at 4.49 of the first round.
Prediction: Vitor Belfort by TKO/KO.
Result: Vitor Belfort by submission (rear naked choke).


Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes.

I told you that Aldo was going to deliver big, and he certainly has. Any MMA fan who hadn't been interested in him before now certainly will be now, and his celebrity status in Rio must be going through the roof since the event. After showing off what must now be acknowledged as probably the best take-down defense in the business, Aldo scored a lightning quick knee to the chin of Mendes, and followed up with punches for the victory with only one second remaining in the first round. Jose Aldo gave an absolutely incredible performance, and I for one absolutely cannot wait to see what they do with this young prodigy next.
Prediction: Jose Aldo by TKO/KO.
Result: Jose Aldo by KO (knee).