UFC 191 Prelim Predictions

Some very respectable prelims here, and I expect them to deliver action in every bout. More of these matches are roughly even than the main card, and the fights could end up better for it. Here are the prelim predictions:

Paul Felder vs. Ross Pearson

Yet another favourable matchup here, as Felder will have an opponent in Pearson who is more than willing to stand and trade with him for fifteen minutes. This could be another highlight finish for Felder, but Pearson is a solid fighter and has enough power that you can never count him out. Still, Pearsons KO wins in the past few years have all been over shot fighters (Sam Stout, Grey Maynard, George Sotiropoulis), so don’t expect too much here. The younger, bigger Felder takes this one.

Prediction: Paul Felder by KO

John Lineker vs. Francisco Rivera

This is a very tough one, and I have changed my mind a dozen times this week over who takes this one. At first it seemed that the Rivera size advantage would be too much, as Lineker is only fighting at 135 because he missed 125 on four different occasions. It could be that he is going to find his right weight class with a great performance here however, and he has the experience edge on Rivera, as well as having a better chin, which should be important here. Tough, tough pick, but I think Lineker has the better wins and will relish having an opponent who is not afraid to stand with him.

Prediction: John Lineker by TKO

Jessica Andrade vs. Raquel Pennington

There is not too much to say on this fight, as the two women have already fought and I expect the result to be the same this time. Pennington has underrated toughness, but not really much else. Andrade is a better fighter, and while it won’t be easy, she should pull off the win here fairly convincingly.

Prediction: Jessica Andrade by decision

Clay Collard vs. Thiago Trator

I was a big fan of Collard after his first couple of UFC fights, but I think he looked awful against Gabrial Benitez at UFC 188. Collard barely hung on to lose a decision, gassing badly and almost being finished several times. Still, Trator seems like the kind of fighters Collard should look good against, and hopefully without the Mexican altitude Collard will have improved cardio. Giving my boy Clay one more shout here, otherwise we may have to accept that he isn’t quite UFC calibre.

Prediction: Clay Collard by TKO

Joe Riggs vs. Ron Stallings

I’ll keep this short, Riggs barely made weight and reportedly needed medical assistance backstage, so I’m surprised he is even fighting. Stallings is not great, but Riggs is too old, too worn down and too fragile to compete at this level anymore.

Prediction: Ron Stallings by TKO

Nazareno Malegarie vs. Joaquim Silva

I admit that I am not too familiar with either of these guys, but I’ll give it a shot regardless. Both have great finishing rates, Silva is undefeated at 7-0, though Malagerie has more experience and a very respectable 23-3 record. Malagerie is the pick, simply down to experience and an impressive 15 submission victories.

Prediction: Nazareno Malagerie by submission

UFC 191 Main Card Predictions

After a two+ year hiatus, Mostaccuratestriker is finally back, and with much improved predictions. I have spent the past couple of years boning up, and will be bringing predictions for every event with a much higher degree of accuracy (I hope).

Tonight is UFC 191, and even if you aren’t the biggest fan of the flyweights, there is sure to be something here to sink your teeth into. Without further ado let’s jump right into the picks:

Demetrious Johnson (c) vs. John Dodson

If you saw the first between these two, then you will know that Dodson gave Mighty Mouse the toughest fight of his championship tenure so far. Knocking down a champion like Johnson is no easy task, and Dodson managed it twice in one round, before tiring out and almost being finished himself towards the end. It will be interesting to see which of these men have improved more, but to me it seems the pretty clear pick is Johnson.

Johnson has been racking up defences while Dodson was off dealing with a knee injury, so he has been out there steadily improving over the last two years. Also, in his return against Zach Makovsky Dodson did not look like himself, though that could be attributed to ring rust from his year on the sidelines. Either way, Dodson will need a much, much better showing if he is to get the job done this time. While Dodson looks good for a live underdog bet, especially by knockout, I think his chances are worse than in his first time around. Johnson is just too good everywhere, and if Dodson gets tired again I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mighty Mouse get the late stoppage. For now though, the prediction is Demetrious Johnson by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Demetrious Johnson by decision

Andrei Arlovski vs. Frank Mir

I won’t go too much into the career resurgence stories for both these men, impressive as they are. This matchup is both exciting and a little bit sad, as I don’t want to see either of these veterans go back into the losing column. That’s life, however, so all we can do is sit back and enjoy watching the violence unfold. You can’t really call this a striker vs. grappler matchup, as Mir has improved his standup and comes in off two first round KO wins. However, standing with Arlovski is what I believe is going to be his downfall here, as Arlovski has been at the knockout game a lot longer than Mir.

With two men who have been knocked out plenty in their careers, I wouldn’t feel overly confident betting either one. Both have won out as the underdogs in the past too much to be written off, and as Mir is the underdog here I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pull out a win. If Arlovski comes out like he has in his last two fights, expect a violent end. This will at least bring us a little further to forgetting his dismal showing against Brenden Schaub in his UFC return. An upset is definitely possible here, as is a slow grind, but I will go with Arlovski taking it by knockout, probably in the first round.

Prediction: Andrei Arlovski by knockout

Anthony Johnson vs. Jimi Manuwa

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson really needs to be a little more careful if he is going to retain his status as a crowd favourite. He has been at the wrong end of domestic abuse allegations in the last year, and only exacerbated the situation by going on a rant against a woman training at his gym. Rumbles personal life could end up affecting his performance, but that is not enough that I can give Manuwa a reasonable chance. 

The two men are primarily strikers, though Rumble has a wrestling background, giving him another potential key to victory. This one simply seems to be an easy win for Rumble, as I expect him to finish Manuwa quickly and efficiently, then hopefully keep his mouth shut on social media so we can all continue to be Anthony Johnson fans with a clear conscience.

Prediction: Rumble Johnson by knockout

Corey Anderson vs. Jan Blachowicz

This one is a tough pick. I don’t really trust the skills of Blachowicz too much, and other than his finish of Ilir Latifi he hasn’t really done anything impressive in the past few years. With Anderson however, you face betting on a relatively unproven fighter, which I always prefer to avoid. It is simply too difficult to tell how much a young fighter will change between fights, and we may see Anderson show enough improvements that he can bounce back from his first career loss in a big way. I am going to go with my gut here and predict an Anderson win, though I am not sure he does enough to get the finish.

Prediction: Corey Anderson by decision

Paige VanZant vs. Alex Chambers

This matchup has been criticised by many for how much it seems to favour VanZant. She is a Ronda Rousey level betting favourite, so obviously very few people are giving Chambers a chance. This is interesting when you look at VanZants past couple of fights, as she leaves a lot of openings, relying on her scrambling ability and natural athleticism to get her out of trouble. This could be her downfall against Chambers, who has proven finishing ability, albeit against less than stellar competition. Still, VanZant is still something of an unknown with only six career fights, so having her as such a huge favourite doesn’t seem entirely reasonable. At 10/1 Chambers is definitely worth a bet, but I expect VanZant to overwhelm Chambers and either win a wide margin decision or get a stoppage when Chambers simply cannot deal with her constant pressure.

Prediction: Paige VanZant by TKO