UFC on Fox 5 Predictions

It’s hard to believe that a card this stacked was possibly the only one of 2012 to avoid changes due to injury. The main card held up at least, with the preliminary card losing a couple of fighters due to illness, injury and slippery saunas (looking at you Tim Means). I didn’t dare get my hopes up in the lead up to this card, because with so many top notch fights I thought that at least one would have to be struck by the injury bug that has ravaged so many 2012 cards. Since it hasn’t we can all enjoy a premium card and remember the days where scheduled fight cards used to happen as they were initially advertised. Here are my predictions:

Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick   

             

Matt Brown is a guy that I have been a fan of since seeing him on Season 7 of The Ultimate Fighter. Brown is just one of those tough guys who genuinely is just that, a fighter who isn’t worried about doing anything more than going out and going to war for as long as it takes to get a win. After a very average stretch in the UFC, (5-5 in his first 10) he has started to put together a bit of a win streak, having won his last three. Swick is coming off a Knockout of the Night performance against DeMarques Johnson, and will be looking to repeat this feat against Brown.

The most likely scenario for this fight seems to be Swick getting tired of trading shots with Brown and trying to get the fight to the ground. Brown has a history of being weak against submissions, with a huge nine of his 11 career defeats coming by way of submission. Though I am tempted to take Brown as the underdog bet, I just have to think that Swick will take advantage of Brown’s weak submission defence. Look for Swick to lock in a submission early in the fight, possibly his once famous guillotine.

Winner: Mike Swick by submission

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald

This is the fight that most people have been talking about in the run up to this card. Knowing that he will never get another shot as welterweight champ GSP, Penn is coming out of retirement to face MacDonald, a protégé of GSP and fighter who he is often compared to. The build-up to this fight got pretty personal, with Penn saying he resented MacDonald’ and the fans lack of recognition for him as one of the best of all time. MacDonald has seemed supremely confident in interviews leading up to the fight, saying that Penn is going to get hurt because he is coming back for the wrong reasons.

This is an exciting matchup, and if MacDonald wins then expect him to get matched with one of the major welterweight players for his next bout. A rematch with Carlos Condit could be in the cards, if Condit doesn’t get put against Martin Kampmann before then. For BJ the future is a lot less clear, as even if he wins he can’t expect to get another shot at the title while GSP is still champion. I don’t expect this to be the case however, as I expect even a motivated and in shape Penn to struggle against the bigger, stronger MacDonald. I expect MacDonald to take BJ down and control the fight, probably finishing by TKO in the 2^nd round.

Winner: Rory MacDonald by TKO

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson

This is another interesting matchup, as the winner is said to be the next person in line for a shot at the light heavyweight title, after Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen compete for it in April. It is a hard one to predict, mainly because of Shogun and his inconsistency. Since coming to the UFC we have seen a motivated Shogun blitz through opponents, and we have seen a sluggish Shogun who just seems to be relying on natural talent rather than training. If we see the latter Shogun then he could be in trouble, because natural talent is something that Gustafsson has a ridiculous amount of. 

Plenty of people are counting out Shogun, and as much as I would like to back him here he is just too hard to count on the past few years. Shogun will come on strong early, and if he wins it will be in the first round. After this round conditioning will become a factor, and I expect Gustafsson to be streets ahead here. Though I don’t want to count Shogun out here, I expect Gustafsson to have prepared enough that he can overwhelm Shogun should he weather the initial storm.

Winner: Gustafsson by TKO

Nate Diaz vs. Ben Henderson

This fight could go one of several ways. Henderson could utilise his wrestling and try and control Diaz for five rounds, or each fighter might prefer to keep it standing for their separate reasons, and give us a display of their striking ability. If this happens we could see a fight like Diaz/Donald Cerrone, where Diaz kills it with his punches but is left vulnerable to kicks. Whatever happens expect the strengths of either man to be on show to full effect. Henderson has better kicks and wrestling, Diaz has the better boxing, and both have great submissions and cardio. Expectations seem to be mostly for a five round fight, and I agree that this is likely, but not a certainty.

Most people are putting Henderson as the favourite if it goes to decision, but remembering the trouble that Henderson had with Frankie Edgars boxing, as well as how close their two fights were, it doesn’t seem impossible for Diaz to win by points. With the roll Diaz is on however, and considering how close Hendersons last couple of fights have been, I think Diaz is going to shock the world and catch Henderson in a submission. Expect plenty of guillotine attempts from both guys, as it is a favourite for both, but whether by this or another move, I think Diaz will pull off the upset and be the first man in the UFC/WEC to finish Henderson.

Winner: Nate Diaz by submission

Kryptonite part 1: Hughes vs. Hallman

Matt Hughes has had a long and extremely successful career as an MMA fighter, and along with rival Georges St. Pierre will be remembered as possibly the greatest welterweight of all time. During the early days of the UFC Hughes ruled over his division in a fashion more dominant than anyone until Anderson Silva became the UFC middleweight champion. In the early stages of his career Hughes fought far more often than most professional fighters do now, more than once fighting two and three times in a single night. With this prolific approach to fighting Hughes amassed a 22-2 record in his first two years as a professional, a record comparable to very few other fighters, even now. In fact, the only thing keeping Hughes from having a perfect record at this time was a single fighter, Dennis “Superman” Hallman.

Many fighters come up against someone in their careers who they simply have no answer for. A fighter could be better than someone at almost every aspect of the sport, but still manages to get caught by them every single time. Hughes was dominating every opponent he faced at this stage in his career, but somehow Hallman just had the key to defeating him both times they fought. Not only did Hallman defeat Hughes, but in both of their bouts he managed to submit Hughes, and in less than 30 seconds each time. This is even more shocking when we see that in Hughes entire career he was only submitted twice more, once by a prime BJ Penn in 2004 and again by the other greatest welterweight of all time, GSP, in 2007.

The result of the two Hallman/Hughes fights is a surprise when you look over both men’s careers. As we established Hughes was on the verge of entering one of the greatest runs of all time, but Hallman was destined to make much less of an impression with his career. Not only did Hallman not go on to achieve greatness in the sport, but he has spent the time since that fight coming up short almost every time he has tried to take a step up to facing better competition.

In Hughes’ career he was only beaten more than once by two other men, losing twice to the aforementioned BJ Penn and Georges St Pierre. Both of these men however, also succumbed to Hughes once, Penn by TKO and GSP by submission. Hallman remains responsible for both the only unanswered losses that Hughes suffered in his prime, and his still impressive record of 45-9 would be much more illustrious were it not for the inexplicable losses to such an underachieving fighter as Hallman. Hughes supposedly called Hallman’s first win a “Fluke” after Hallman choked him out with a standing guillotine 17 seconds into their first fight in 1998. It is anyone’s guess how he reacted two years later when he tapped to Hallman’s armbar after only 20 seconds. Here is the first fight, so judge for yourself whether Hallman just got lucky.

Some losses just can’t be explained. Maybe Hughes was right and Hallman just got lucky, and maybe if the two met now the result would be drastically different. If I could see one more fight for Hughes before he retired forever it would be against Hallman, just so we could see for sure what would happen. For now though, Hallman will always be remembered as a pretty good fighter who never quite managed to hit the upper level. While he won’t have any major title belts to hang on his walls, at least he will one day be able to tell his grandchildren about how he tapped out UFC legend and hall of famer Matt Hughes. Twice. Somehow.