It’s hard to believe that a card this stacked was possibly
the only one of 2012 to avoid changes due to injury. The main card held up at
least, with the preliminary card losing a couple of fighters due to illness,
injury and slippery saunas (looking at you Tim Means). I didn’t dare get my
hopes up in the lead up to this card, because with so many top notch fights I
thought that at least one would have to be struck by the injury bug that has
ravaged so many 2012 cards. Since it hasn’t we can all enjoy a premium card and
remember the days where scheduled fight cards used to happen as they were
initially advertised. Here are my predictions:
Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick
Matt Brown is a guy that I have been a fan of since seeing
him on Season 7 of The Ultimate Fighter. Brown is just one of those tough guys
who genuinely is just that, a fighter who isn’t worried about doing anything
more than going out and going to war for as long as it takes to get a win.
After a very average stretch in the UFC, (5-5 in his first 10) he has started
to put together a bit of a win streak, having won his last three. Swick is
coming off a Knockout of the Night performance against DeMarques Johnson, and
will be looking to repeat this feat against Brown.
The most likely scenario for this fight seems to be Swick
getting tired of trading shots with Brown and trying to get the fight to the
ground. Brown has a history of being weak against submissions, with a huge nine
of his 11 career defeats coming by way of submission. Though I am tempted to
take Brown as the underdog bet, I just have to think that Swick will take
advantage of Brown’s weak submission defence. Look for Swick to lock in a
submission early in the fight, possibly his once famous guillotine.
Winner: Mike Swick by submission
BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald
This is the fight that most people have been talking about
in the run up to this card. Knowing that he will never get another shot as welterweight
champ GSP, Penn is coming out of retirement to face MacDonald, a protégé of GSP
and fighter who he is often compared to. The build-up to this fight got pretty
personal, with Penn saying he resented MacDonald’ and the fans lack of
recognition for him as one of the best of all time. MacDonald has seemed
supremely confident in interviews leading up to the fight, saying that Penn is
going to get hurt because he is coming back for the wrong reasons.
This is an exciting matchup, and if MacDonald wins then expect
him to get matched with one of the major welterweight players for his next
bout. A rematch with Carlos Condit could be in the cards, if Condit doesn’t get
put against Martin Kampmann before then. For BJ the future is a lot less clear,
as even if he wins he can’t expect to get another shot at the title while GSP
is still champion. I don’t expect this to be the case however, as I expect even
a motivated and in shape Penn to struggle against the bigger, stronger
MacDonald. I expect MacDonald to take BJ down and control the fight, probably
finishing by TKO in the 2nd round.
Winner: Rory MacDonald by TKO
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson
This is another interesting matchup, as the winner is said
to be the next person in line for a shot at the light heavyweight title, after
Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen compete for it in April. It is a hard one to
predict, mainly because of Shogun and his inconsistency. Since coming to the UFC
we have seen a motivated Shogun blitz through opponents, and we have seen a
sluggish Shogun who just seems to be relying on natural talent rather than
training. If we see the latter Shogun then he could be in trouble, because
natural talent is something that Gustafsson has a ridiculous amount of.
Plenty
of people are counting out Shogun, and as much as I would like to back him here
he is just too hard to count on the past few years. Shogun will come on strong
early, and if he wins it will be in the first round. After this round conditioning
will become a factor, and I expect Gustafsson to be streets ahead here. Though
I don’t want to count Shogun out here, I expect Gustafsson to have prepared
enough that he can overwhelm Shogun should he weather the initial storm.
Winner: Gustafsson by TKO
Nate Diaz vs. Ben Henderson
This fight could go one of several ways. Henderson could
utilise his wrestling and try and control Diaz for five rounds, or each fighter
might prefer to keep it standing for their separate reasons, and give us a
display of their striking ability. If this happens we could see a fight like
Diaz/Donald Cerrone, where Diaz kills it with his punches but is left
vulnerable to kicks. Whatever happens expect the strengths of either man to be
on show to full effect. Henderson has better kicks and wrestling, Diaz has the
better boxing, and both have great submissions and cardio. Expectations seem to
be mostly for a five round fight, and I agree that this is likely, but not a
certainty.
Most people are putting Henderson as the favourite if it
goes to decision, but remembering the trouble that Henderson had with Frankie
Edgars boxing, as well as how close their two fights were, it doesn’t seem
impossible for Diaz to win by points. With the roll Diaz is on however, and
considering how close Hendersons last couple of fights have been, I think Diaz
is going to shock the world and catch Henderson in a submission. Expect plenty
of guillotine attempts from both guys, as it is a favourite for both, but
whether by this or another move, I think Diaz will pull off the upset and be
the first man in the UFC/WEC to finish Henderson.
Winner: Nate Diaz by submission
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