UFC on Fox 5 – Predictions vs. Results

Saturday’s much hyped UFC on Fox 5 event has come and gone, and left behind in its wake could be the careers of several legends that competed on the card. Delivering on all fronts, UFC on Fox 5 gave us a good idea about what to expect for several of the title pictures this coming year, and it promises to be a very interesting one for the divisions concerned. 

Here are my predictions and how they stacked up against the actual results:

Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown

While picking this I was trying not to let my personal preferences become an issue, which ultimately worked against me. I predicted that Mike Swick would submit Matt Brown due to Swick’s edge on the ground, and Brown’s history of being vulnerable to submissions. The actual result couldn’t have been more different, as Brown KO’d Swick, putting him on the first four fight win streak of his career. Brown is a favourite of mine to watch, so as much as I like Swick, I still wanted to see Brown leave with the win, and he certainly didn’t disappoint. Even when the fight went to the ground Brown seemed to hold his own much better than in previous fights, so he is obviously working hard to correct his weaknesses. 

Glad I got this one wrong, and looking forward to seeing the next move in the career of Matt “The Immortal” Brown.

Prediction: Mike Swick by submission

Result: Matt Brown by KO (punches)

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald

This fight was pretty hard to watch if you are a fan of BJ Penn, but I think most of us saw it coming a mile away. MacDonald is a future champion in the UFC, and Penn is way too far past it to even be competing against top lightweights, let alone big welterweights. There is talk of BJ retiring after this, and I hope for his own sake that he does. There is no way that he could hang with the new breed of dangerous welterweights fighting at the moment, so I would prefer to see him go out without tarnishing his record any longer. 

MacDonald looked impressive in victory, even with his taunting of BJ through the fight. I am looking forward to Macdonald/Condit II if they make it, and with MacDonald delivering like he has in his previous fights, I can think of no reason why they shouldn’t.

Prediction: Rory MacDonald by TKO

Result: Rory MacDonald by decision

Shogun Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson

As I said in my predictions, we never know which Mauricio “Shogun” Rua we are going to see in the octagon. The one we saw on Saturday seemed to be somewhere in the middle of those we have seen the past few years. While Shogun didn’t gas exactly, he looked tired after the first round, and though still dangerous, allowed Gustafsson to pick him apart at will. I can’t see Shogun ever challenging for a belt in the UFC again, and I think for his sake it is best that he doesn’t step in against someone like Jon Jones if he is not at his physical peak. 

As for Gustafsson, he looked good in the fight, and racked up the biggest name of his career to keep his forward momentum going. He didn’t look as good as we hoped however, and I for one didn’t think he looked like someone who could present a threat to light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. There is talk of Gustafsson fighting Lyoto Machida if Dan Henderson is not recovered on time, and this could be a good chance to see whether he really is ready for a shot. If Gustafsson faces Machida or defeats another top light heavyweight, then I think it will be hard to deny him a title shot against the winner of Sonnen/Jones in April.

Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by TKO

Winner: Alexander Gustafsson by decision

Nate Diaz vs. Benson Henderson

So it turns out I got this fight pretty wrong. Whether I overestimated Diaz or underestimated Henderson the result was the same, Henderson gave Diaz a serious five round beating. I thought the boxing of Diaz would come into play more than it did, but Henderson gave a masterful performance, neutralising the reach advantage of Diaz easily. His athleticism was on show throughout the five rounds, and after his last two close fights against Frankie Edgar he needed a win like this to be taken seriously as the lightweight champion. 

One of the most impressive features of the fight was Henderson avoiding the submission attempts of Diaz, something that I thought was going to be much more of a factor than it was. Whether what Diaz said about having blurry vision after getting in hit in the first round was true or not, it seems like the result could not have been much different. Henderson was in the zone, and whoever his next fight is against, I think the odds for the chap should be a little better this time.

Prediction: Nate Diaz by submission

Result: Benson Henderson by decision