UFC 140: Main event Prediction

In the past few days I looked back at the bouts that current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones and title contender Lyoto Machida had fought against overlapping opponents. In a look at who had been more impressive in their fights against Stephan Bonnar, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Jones had arguably had the more impressive performance every time. These two will meet for the first time tonight, and many people are saying that Machida is the last UFC light heavyweight currently competing who has even a chance of beating the seemingly unstoppable Jones. This would certainly seem the case, and Machida is a fighter who would know a lot about being considered unbeatable, as he was for several years before sustaining two losses in a row against Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson. 

Below is the weigh in: Skip to about 14:00 to see the beginning.

 

Machida proved beatable in the end however, and so far Jones hasn’t. And while Machida’s last victory was an amazing KO through jumping crane kick to UFC legend Randy Couture, Couture was 47 at the time, so this might not quite stand up to some of his victories in the past. Jon Jones is currently exactly half Randy Couture’s age, and Machida had best prepare himself for speed and endurance far out lapping Couture’s. Jon Jones has had many doubters on his rapid rise, and plenty of people want to see him beaten, but I don’t think that Machida is the one to do it. The styles of Machida and Jones have been measured up against each other again and again in recent months, and there just seems that bar another Karate Kid style moment, there is very little that Machida can do to earn the win. 

While Machida will still be a light heavyweight to be reckoned with whether he wins or loses, I have to give the win to Jones here, probably through TKO in the third round, similar to the Shogun bout.

Prediction: Jon Jones by TKO

Wasted prime for GSP.

Georges St-Pierre is the fighter that I credit for doing the most in making me a fan of MMA. I don't remember exactly how it started, but somehow I ended up watching a load of his fights, then deciding that MMA might just be my new favourite sport. Imagine my surprise once I did a bit more research and found out that he wasn't the only fantastic athlete involved with the sport, and that there were fighters who captured my attention just as much as GSP did.

Now that I am a full fledged fan of MMA I don't get the chance to see GSP fight that often, simply because he doesn't. Since he beat Matt Serra for the Undisputed UFC Welterweight Championship in April 2008 he has fought and defended the title six times. A huge pay-per-view draw, GSP fights always have a huge build up, especially in the cases of his past few fights, where it is a constant question of who can break his current nine fight win streak. With news that an injury is going to have GSP sidelined for roughly nine months just out, there is a contest between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit being held at UFC 143 in February. This news hit me hard, as it seems like so long since I have last seen GSP fight. His last bout was in April this year, when he beat top contender Jake Shields by unanimous decision.

With this latest injury, he will only have fought once in 2011, and might only fight once in 2012 depending on how his surgery goes. This bothers me because though GSP always goes on about MMA being his whole life and who he is, he just seems to barely ever step in the Octagon. Jon Jones is the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, and his upcoming fight against Lyoto Machida will be his fourth fight in 2011. At 24 years of age, Jones is building up his MMA legend at an early age, so that it will be well established by the time he slows down with age. While deciding who fights how often could just be completely down to the booking of the UFC, at only 30 years old it seems like GSP is wasting the prime of his career sitting on the sidelines. I do not even think he would be injured if he had just been competing more. Fighters often seem to injure themselves in training camps before fights, and it seems to happen more often when they have not fought for a while and over do it in training.

GSP claims he wants to be remembered as the greatest welterweight in UFC history, and it seems like he should be fighting ever chance he gets, while he is still young in order to achieve this.Still one of my favourite fighters, I will be writing about GSP again in future, but for now, let's just hope that GSP is wishing that he had fought more when he had the chance, and that he comes back more motivated and ready to fight on a full schedule than ever.

Who did better? Jon Jones/Lyoto Machida Vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson.

The last former opponent of Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida that we will look at is one that they both faced fairly recently, former UFC light heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Jackson is a fighter similar to Stephan Bonnar in that his usual tactic is to charge forward swinging punches, and so it should be very telling of how Machida and Jones will match up by seeing how they approached the fight with Rampage.

Lyoto Machida - Lyoto Machida faced Rampage at UFC 123 in November 2010. This was Machida's next fight after his devastating loss to Shogun Rua in May of the same year, and he came into the fight still sporting a fantastic 16-1 professional record.

This started off as a fairly even fight, with both fighters gaining the upper hand at different times, though neither really managed to inflict much damage. Machida used his elusive style to avoid the heavy hands of Rampage, while Rampage could only manage to stomp the feet of Machida and hit some body shots while clinching or pushing him up against the cage. The first round did not seem to have a definitive winner, and it is hard to argue with any decision that the judges might have made, though the obvious conclusion seemed to be to call it a draw. The second round went down a similar route, though Rampage seemed to do better this time around, scoring a takedown and landing some more significant strikes as he got used to the ducking and backpedalling of Machida. Machida seemed to have difficulty with Rampage, possibly because he was afraid of getting knocked out again, and knowing that Rampage would be more than happy to do this for him. It seems fair to say that the Shogun KO had shaken him, because he took few risks in round one and two, and allowed Rampage to largely control the pace and direction of the fight.

The third round was a different story, and Machida seemed to get more motivated, possibly fearing that he would lose by decision, something he had rarely ever had to worry about before. In this round Machida knocked Rampage off balance with a forward push of strikes, knocking him back towards the cage and then taking him down. Machida took a similar route with Rashad Evans several fights before and scored a KO, but Rampage, who had at this point never been finished in the UFC, proved to be a more difficult opponent to finish, and the fight clock ran out and the decision went to the judges. Machida lost the fight by decision, in what many people considered to be an upset, and what even more considered to be an incorrect decision. Rampage himself looked completely shocked when the decision was announced, obviously deciding that it was either a draw with one round apiece, or that the beating in the third round would have resulted in a loss for him.

While Machida deserved better in this fight, it seems like a decision loss was just what he needed in his career, so that he would finally get some motivation to finish fights instead of assuming he would get the win by way of decision. A good performance, but the judges obviously didn't think it was good enough.

Jon Jones - Jones fought Rampage at UFC 135, in September 2011. It was Jones first title defense since beating Shogun, and the fight that many people said was finally going to test his chin, and show whether or not he could take a solid strike if he failed to avoid it.

The fight started off with Jones crouched down low, keeping his hands on the ground, so that he was basically crouched down and circling while Rampage tried to jab down at him. When they straightened up the round consisted largely of Jones pressing Rampage up against the cage, or keeping him at bay with his huge eleven inch reach advantage. There were several points when the two pressed up against each other, testing strength, and Jones came out on top, using leverage from his height and reach to push Rampage across the cage. Rampage is famed for his strength, and it is a big change to see someone pushing him around like Jones did.

The second round showed Jones looking more tentative than in any fight in recent memory, allowing Rampage to control much of the pace of the fight. Jones continued landing the more solid strikes however, using his range as effectively as always. At the very end of the round jones pulled guard, and looked about to pull Rampage into a Triangle Choke as the round ended.

Jones was more aggressive in the third round, taking down and mounting Jackson, then pummeling him with strikes. When they got back to their feet Rampage seemed increasingly frustrated with the long reach of Jones, obviously getting tired of being pummelled from a distance without being able to answer back in kind. This round was one sided, and showed that Rampage really had nothing to threaten Jones with but wild shots, none of which seemed to put Jones in any real danger.
The fourth round started off with the same swinging of the previous ones, but this ended quickly as Jones forced down Rampage and latched on with a Rear Naked Choke, securing the tapout at just over a minute in.

This was a textbook performance by Jones, where he kept his distance from Rampage, frustrating him until he could get him down and win by submission. While Jones at first seemed wary of the wild, powerful swings of Jackson, this did not last as Jones got his rhythm, and it was Jones' game from then on. It isn't often that we have seen Rampage bested in tests of strength, and this became just another fight for Jones where he appeared to be all round superior to his opponents. Considering the back and forth bout that was Machida/Rampage, and the beating that Jones put on Rampage, this one has to go the way both the others did. To Jon Jones.

Jon Jones

Chael Sonnen Watch! UFC on Fox 2 Press Conference.

The UFC held a press conference for the UFC on Fox 2 event being held on 28th January next year. It featured Headliners Rashed Evans, Phil Davis, co-headliners Chael Sonnen and Mark Munoz, and co-co-headliners Michael Bisping and Demian Maia. As far as press conferences go, this one was pretty decent. Often they can be slow and boring, with plenty of "he is going to know he was in a fight", cliche type comments. Sonnen usually manages to liven them up when he appears, and this one was no different. I was also surprised at how entertaining Michael Bisping was, and I have to say that I am starting to change my mind on him. I'm not ready to dedicate a blog section to him or anything, but I think I might actually be rooting for him in the Demian Maia fight, which is a first for me.

The video is here, skip through to about 19:30 for the actual beginning of the press conference:

With the fight itself still about 7 weeks away, we have to rely on events such as this to get our hit of Sonnen antics. Below are some of his best quotes from the press conference:

"Everyone up here is grateful to be on Fox, everyone but me. I would say Fox, you're welcome. You have been telling everyone for years that you have the American Idol, and now you finally do."

In response to a claim that he cheated against Mark Munoz while in a college wrestling match - "I don't even remember college. I'm driving around in a car with no insurance, a pocket with no money, the biggest thing on my mind is which kid to sit next to on exam day."

"On January 28th I will be ready. It will be one more in the win column, one more on the mantel, and one more for the bad guy."

When a fighter thanks them for coming back to Chicago - "You're welcome, when me and Dana made the decision to come back, well he takes most of the credit for it, but when we decided to come back we actually had you specifically in mind, so thank you for coming out today"

When a fan asks him would he ever go for a position in politics - "You know I appreciate that, and I actually held public office, and I left the only way a person should, in handcuffs."

When asked about his game plan going into the fight with Munoz - "I hear guys talking about game plans, and footwork, and strategy, with their coaches, and their gold teeth and their 8th grade educations and I don't care about any of that. Mark Munoz is gonna find out, and I do like him, but never piss off a gangster."

Who did better? Jon Jones/Lyoto Machida Vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Our next competitor is one that both Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida faced, with Machida having faced him twice.

Jon Jones - Jones faced Shogun for the light heavyweight championship at UFC 128, in March 2011. It was his 8th UFC contest, with him having risen through the ranks at an unprecedented rate, holding a 6-1 UFC record. Considering this lone loss was against Matt Hamill, where he got DQ'd for basically beating him too badly, this is a damn fine record for anyone, let alone someone as young as Jones was at this time (23).

The fight started off even enough, with Shogun and Jones exchanging blows right from the beginning. Within a minute or so however, Jones had taken Shogun down, and from then on things went downhill for Shogun. Though he eventually got back to his feet, Jones began landing harder strikes, and spent the rest of the round putting a beating on Shogun. The most significant strike landed was a hard knee/shin on a bent over Rua by Jones, which he said later affected his performance for the rest of the fight.
The second round continued the same way, with Jones giving Shogun a serious standup beating for the first half or so, then doing the same in mount for the second half. Shogun looked like he was barely hanging on when facing Jones, and seemed to be having serious trouble with Jones' huge reach, but also from the speed of his strikes.

Shogun looked better at the beginning of the third round, striking more aggressively and managing to get Jones down at one stage. This was never going to last however, and as with many of Jones' fights, he just looked in a different league than his opponent, and we knew it was only a matter of time until he was back on top. This was how the third round went, and when Jones knocked Shogun to the mat with a huge knee referee Herb Dean stepped in and called an end to the fight. Dean looked ready to stop the fight for a while before Jones hit the knee, and though they called it a TKO, Shogun appears to tap just as he hits the ground, which one can hardly blame him for after taking such a beating. This was a fantastic performance by Jones, against an opponent like Shogun who has at times been considered the best light heavyweight in the world. And bearing in mind once again that Jones was only 23, making him the youngest light heavyweight champion in history, this seemed to many mark the time when Jones' rapid rise changed from extraordinary to legendary.

Lyoto Machida - Machida first fought Shogun at UFC 104, in October 2009. Machida was the heavy favourite going into the fight, as was to be expected since he was the light heavyweight champion, and still maintaining a perfect 15-0 professional MMA record. The fight went five rounds long, with back and forth action throughout. Machida fought his usual elusive style, but Shogun used a tactic different than those of Machida's past opponents. He focused more on leg kicks and strikes away from the head than standard striking, to the extent that Machida's mobility looked affected by the final couple of rounds. The style of Machida has been compared to that of Michael Bisping, in that it consists largely of backing up and counter striking. This proved to be the case in that fight also, as the judges awarded Machida the unanimous decision, giving him three rounds to Rua's two.

This decision was one of the most controversial in recent memory. Many fighters and MMA personalities have come forward since and stated that they thought Machida lost the fight, due to Shogun being more aggressive and doing more significant damage. Because of this controversy, Shogun was granted a rematch at UFC 113 in May 2010.

The rematch started off very differently from the first. Machida seemed to be using the same style that he usually adopts, fighting backwards in attempts to score points in a decision. Shogun was far more aggressive than in the first fight, and clearly realised that his only way to be sure of winning was to finish Machida, as noone else had done before. He pushed Machida backwards in the first round and began landing strikes, before knocking him down and at 3:35 pummeling him unconscious with punches, thereby giving him the first loss of his professional career.

With a fighter such as Lyoto Machida it is difficult to rate him on individual performances, simply because he seems to fight the same way in every fight. With Jones his offense is unpredictable, but with Machida his opponents have difficulty mostly because they are not used to the karate style that he brings to the fight. Lyoto fought well against Shogun in the first bout and got the decision, but once Shogun got motivated and came back he bested Machida with a brutal knockout. Jones fought with a fire that Machida has never brought to the table, and gave Shogun the beating of his career, in the very next bout after he KO'd Machida. For Shogun to look that impressive against Machida, and then get such a beating at the hands of Jones, furthers the theory that Jones really is in a league of his own. Gotta give this one to jones too.

Jon Jones

Who did better? Jon Jones/Lyoto Machida Vs. Stephan Bonnar.

UFC 140 is this Saturday, and the headlining fight is a much anticipated clash between Light Heavyweight Champion Jon "Bones" Jones and former champion Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. I will post a proper preview and prediction later in the week, but for now I want to take a look at some of their past opponents. Jones and Machida are both unpredictable fighters, but since they have faced several of the same opponents in the past, this will give us a chance to see how both used their unique skills in the same scenario. I will do one of these each for the next three days, covering Stephan Bonnar, Mauricio Rua and Rampage Jackson, all of whom both Jones and Machida have faced at least once.

Both fighters faced UFC veteran Stephan Bonnar at early stages in their career, and both were victorious.

Lyoto Machida faced Bonnar in 2003 in what was only his second professional bout, which he won by TKO through cuts in the first round. This is the only time in Bonnar's career when an opponent using legal strikes has finished him, he has never been KO'd or submitted, and his only other TKO loss came in 2010, after an inadvertant headbutt by Krzysztof Soszynski. During the 4 minutes and 21 seconds of the bout Machida controlled most of the action with strikes, throwing a number of head kicks and opening up cuts on both Bonnar's cheeks, as well as bloodying up his nose. The cut that ultimately stopped the fight came as Bonnar began to press the reaction, and Lyoto counter punched, splitting Bonnar's cheek right open for a justified stoppage. An impresssive outing against a tough competitor, especially considering this was only Machida's second professional fight.

Much of Machida's success has been attributed to his Karate style, one which is very unusual in MMA and therefore difficult for his opponents to prepare for. Most of his wins have come by decision, and this is usually due to his opponents being cautious and hanging back to try and get used to his technique. The thing about Stephan Bonnar however, is that he is well known as someone who loves to brawl, and therefore he fought Machida the same way he would any other opponent, not letting the different fighting style unsettle him. The fight ending cut occurred just as Bonnar was starting to lay into Machida with a flurry of punches and knees, so it is hard to say how the fight would have gone had it continued. While Machida gets full credit for stopping Bonnar when noone else really has, it seems as if the cuts may have come at a fortunate time, and through Bonnar's misfortune rather than powerful striking on Machida's part.

Jon Jones faced Bonnar in 2009, in what was his second fight in the UFC and eighth professional fight overall. While he controlled most of the fight, Jones was unable to finish Bonnar, only the second opponent in his career that he has been unable to finish. Bonnar was beaten down by Jones' unpredictable offense for most of the first two rounds, with a spinning back elbow and a German Suplex being the highlight. The only time when Jones seemed in trouble was when Bonnar clinched or fought in close, eliminating his huge reach. The formidable upper cuts of Bonnar landed hard several times, but Jones was able to take them and get out from Bonnar's range.

The ability to get back into his comfort zone and control the fight is something that Jones has shown in all of his fights so far. While he did not finish Bonnar like Machida did, Jones managed to control him for the most part of three rounds, while Machida has seemed to be giving ground as Bonnar figured out his style late in their first round.

Two unpredictable fighters got the chance to fight someone in Bonnar who approached both fights with the same brawling attitude. Bearing in mind however, that Jones managed to beat Bonnar six years and a huge amount of experience later, this makes his victory all the more impressive. Controlling a fighter like Bonnar who likes to press the action is not an easy thing to do, and Jones did it for almost the entire fight. A fight being stopped due to cuts is a nasty business, all the more so because it is so often disuputed. Bonnar was also clearly willing to continue when the referee called the stoppage, where Jones took all that he had to give and dished out even worse. When you add to this the fact that the Jones beat the veteran Bonnar at only 21 years of age, he has to get the nod for more impressive win, but it is very close.

Jon Jones

Guilty Pleasure Fighter - Cody McKenzie

Whether they have a style you really enjoy watching, have responded to one of your numerous messages on Twitter, or simply make you laugh, we all have at least one fighter who we are a fan of without being quite sure why. Cody McKenzie is one of those fighters for me. If you haven’t heard of him, he is the guy from season 12 of TUF with the guillotine. Nicknamed the McKenzietine, it is McKenzie’s main weapon in the Octagon, with 10 of his 12 career wins coming by him choking out his opponent. He came to my attention during the prelim fights for season 12, when Georges St Pierre leaned over to Dana White during his fight and stated “That guy there, he will win this, by guillotine”. Having a reputation for just one move seemed like a recipe for disaster, but before TUF Cody had won his last 9 straight fights through guillotine, with a record of 11-0.

More or less everyone regarded him as a novelty act that would get crushed by the higher level talent that TUF would present. This including opposing coach Josh Koscheck, who chose his teams number one pick Marc Stevens to face Cody in his first fight inside the competition. This bout was considered a formality by Stevens, who was positive that he was going to go on and win the competition. 17 seconds into the fight, Stevens was passed out in the McKenzietine, and Cody went on to the quarter finals. Though he lost this bout to current UFC contract holder Nam Phan by TKO, he put on a good fight and his goofy, laid back attitude made an impression on me throughout the show.

McKenzie has since lost his only two bouts in the UFC, and is scheduled to face season 12 TUF finalist Michael Johnson at UCF on Fox 2 in January next year. With both fighters having the same 1-2 record in the UFC, it seems likely that the loser is going to be shown the door. With 5 of Johnsons 6 career losses having come by submission, hopefully McKenzie can pull off one more McKenzietine to save his UFC career. Not a perfect fighter by any means, but I consider Cody McKenzie to be an entertaining character, and one I would watch for many more fights if I got the chance.

Meet your TUF 14 Featherweight Winner.

Immediately following John Dodsons great TKO victory over T.J. Dillashaw, his training partner Diego Brandao won the finals for his weight class, becoming the first ever featherweight ultimate fighter. Brandao beat fellow top featherweight Dennis Bermudez by submission with about 10 seconds remaining in the first round, catching him with an absolutely spectacular arm bar. The one round fight was incredibly action packed, with both fighters landing hard shots, and both knocking their opponent to the canvas on separate occasions. As a massive Diego fan all through season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter, I was actually surprised to see Bermudez put up the great fight that he did. Diegos intensity can be matched by very few in the Octagon, and in a conversation before the fight started I even channeled my inner Amir Sadollah from season 7 of TUF, predicting “Diego to win… By murder”. 

The victory by Brandao was made even more impressive by the fact that it came by submission. Throughout the show Brandao had finished all of his opponents by first round KO, so seeing him win the finals by submissions showed that he is not just a one trick pony. The arm bar itself was also fantastic, with Diego being caught on the bottom of Bermudez but managing to catch his arm, flip him over and have him tapping before he even started to crank it. This win was an important one for Diego, with him claiming throughout the whole TUF season that he planned to use his money from a UFC contract to take care of his family, and other families in need in his native Brazil. With a six figure contract Diego should be well on his way to being able to do this, and the additional $80,000 he made from receiving both Submission of the Night and Fight of the Night should aid this considerably. I cannot wait to see Diego fight again, and with John Dodson winning the bantamweight final, the sky is the limit for this year’s TUF winners.

Meet your TUF 14 Bantamweight Winner.

On Saturday night John Dodson beat fellow finalist T.J. Dillashaw to become the first ever TUF bantamweight champion. The win came by TKO after 1 minute and 54 seconds. After the fight ended some people called the stoppage premature, myself included. It appeared that Dillashaw was going for a single leg takedown just as referee Herb Dean jumped in to end the fight. I kind of thought that Dean might have been nervous for Dillashaw’s sake, as he was also the referee in the semi-final matchup where Dodson landed 5 or 6 hard shots to an already unconscious Johnny Bedford. His raw speed has got to be a nightmare for a referee to keep track of, so I don’t judge Dean too harshly, he knows his job a lot better than I do. 

Dodson’s post fight celebration also had a lot of people talking, as he ran wall to wall in the Octagon, pulling off a pair of very impressive back flips after he finished Dillashaw. Dodson is definetly someone to watch in future, a very high energy and explosive fighter than is sure to have a big future in the UFC. I can’t wait to see him face some real high level competition, and with bantamweight number one contender Urijah Faber being good friends and training partners with T.J. Dillashaw, I hope that this could set the stage for a grudge match between the two somewhere down the line.  For now however, Dodson’s place in history is secure as the first ever bantamweight UFC ultimate fighter.

Chael Sonnen Watch! Chael vs. Munoz is official folks.

Mark Munoz vs. Chael Sonnen has been announced for UFC on Fox 2, on 28th January next year. This is going to be the co-main event, with Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis going to take the top spot.

This is going to be an essential fight for Sonnen, as the winner of this fight is expected to face Middleweight champion Anderson Silva once he has recovered from his current shoulder injury. Munoz is going to be a tough test for Sonnen, at 7-1 since 2009 when he moved down to middleweight from light heavyweight. More than this however, Munoz is an expert wrestler and ground and pounder, a style than Sonnen has relied on to get him on his current run of success. Chael showed off his great ground game in his last two fights against Brian Stann and Anderson Silva, but it will be interesting to see how he fares against someone who can potentially match him on the ground. I will cover it more as the fight approaches, but for now, definitely an interesting matchup to look forward to.

*Spoiler alert* - Mayhem Miller gets CRUSHED.

Just before the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 14 last night, I posted a prediction, Jason Miller to beat Michael Bisping by submission. Well the event is over, and it turns out that I couldn't have been more wrong. Bisping won by TKO in the third round, in a fight that Dana White afterwards described as "the most one sided fight in UFC history". I don't know if I would agree with this, but there is no doubt that Mayhem got absolutely smashed by Bisping, with it looking like he gassed after the first round. More than that however, his striking right from the beginning was sloppy, and even when he briefly took Bisping down, he looked like he didn't know what to do with him once he got there. Coming from a BJJ black belt, and all round veteran like Mayhem this really caught me by surprise, and I have to say that I was incredibly disappointed.

I grew into a big Mayhem Miller fan on the course of this season of TUF, and to have to watch him underperform to this level was absolutely heartbreaking. I knew he was the underdog going in to the fight, but to take a beating is one thing, Mayhem looked like he wasn't even trying. He was so pumped the whole season, and even on the way into the Octagon he looked ready for anything. Once the fight began however, he was so sluggish and lazy looking, I just don't understand why the fight went down the way it did. Also, considering how unimpressed Dana White was in the post-event interview, it is anyone's guess whether Miller will even get another chance to capture a win in the UFC.

With him now 0-2 in his only two Octagon appearances ever, I hope the UFC decide to give Miller a chance to give us the great fights I thought, and still think, he is capable of giving us.