UFC 192 Prelim Predictions

Sage Northcutt vs. Francisco Trevino

Northcutt could be the real deal, or he could end up another in a long line of busted prospects. For now though, it looks like his athleticism and well rounded skillset will be enough to see off Trevino. Trevino is a good mixed martial artist, but I don't really see any area in which he won't be beaten by Northcutt, even at this early stage of his career.

Winner: Sage Northcutt by TKO

Derrick Lewis vs. Viktor Pesta

It is a crapshoot every time Lewis fights, as his outrageous knockout power means that any fight could be won at any second. This becomes considerably less likely, however, after the first round. Lewis does not have great stamina, and isn't particularly great at anything apart from sloppy ground and pound. Pesta should overwhelm him steadily to a late stoppage, but considering Pesta can have sometimes suspect defense, I'm going with the slight upset here.

Winner: Derrick Lewis by KO

Chris Cariaso vs. Sergio Pettis

I'll admit I questioned my pick for this one when I saw that Pettis is the slightly bigger man in this bout. Usually Pettis is outsized, as in his fight against Alex Caceres, and he has trouble handling this. As the bigger guy, Pettis won't deal with this problem. I still don't think that Pettis is that good, however, and I think Cariaso is just good enough to remind us all that not all Pettis' are created equal.

Winner: Chris Cariaso by Decision

Angela Hill vs. Rose Namajunas

This is another one of many fights where the upset is possible. Neither fighter has an extensive record, and Namajunas has been a bit of a busted prospect, hyped up on TUF but lost in the finals and hasn't been able to get a fight since. Hill has a pretty one dimensional skillset, but if she can keep it standing then she could give Namajunas trouble. I'm going to take the unpredictable Namajunas by something cool.

Winner: Rose Namajunas by submission

Adriano Martins vs. Islam Makhachev

This is a close one for me, because I can't help but think of the last time Martins fought a Dagestani fighter as the underdog, and put on a great performance against Rustam Khabilov. This could repeat itself, or Makhachev could be too much. Martins has a solid 4-1 UFC record, only falling to Cowboy Cerrone, but this one could be another loss incoming. I am going to go with my gut pick Martins to pull this out.

Winner: Adriano Martins by Decision

Alan Jouban vs. Albert Tumenov

I was torn on this one all week. Jouban is the bigger guy, and puts on some great fights with his reckless style. The problem with this fight is that Tumenov has the kind of style that should work well against Jouban. I expect this to be a great fight, but Jouban gets hit and dropped far too much for me to pick him with any degree of confidence. An upset is definitely possible here, but Tumenov should get it done.

Winner: Albert Tumenov by TKO

Daniel Hooker vs. Yair Rodriguez

I watched lots of fights for both these guys this week, trying to think about how the fight will play out. It could either go like the Hatsu Hioki/Hooker fight, where Hooker is losing almost the whole way, then gets the finish. Or it could go like the Yair Rodriguez/Charles Rosa fight, where Rodriguez comes out stong and puts on too much pressure for his opponent to handle. I think if it goes to decision then Rodriguez wins, and he could also catch a submission along the way. I think Hooker will find a home for his elbows, and get a stoppage after a couple of very exciting rounds.

Winner: Daniel Hooker by TKO

UFC 192: Best Underdog Bets

This Saturday we have a stacked event in UFC 192, headlined by light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson. There are some great fights on the card, and I will have full predictions up later in the week. Right now however, I want to take a quick look at a couple of the best underdog picks for the fights. Whether you bet, play fantasy games online or just like being right, selecting the right upsets can be the difference maker. Let's get started:


Daniel Hooker @ 9/4

Hooker has a tough task at UFC 192, coming up against rising prospect Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been looking good in his short career, but it seems people are either overestimating him or underestimating Hooker. I have a soft spot for Hooker after picking him at 5/1 to finish Hatsu Hioki in his last fight. While this happening again is far from a guarantee, I think Hooker has every chance of finishing a wreckless and forward moving fighter like Rodriguez. If Hooker can keep it standing then he should get the win. If it goes to the ground Rodriguez will most likely tap him. A bit of a toss up, so Hooker is definitely worth a stab at this price.


Chris Cariaso @ 7/5

Somehow people still can't seem to grasp that Sergio Pettis is not the same fighter as his brother, former lightweight champion Anthony. Both look alike, but “Showtime” is better than Sergio in virtually every way. Chris Cariaso is not a world beater, but I would consider his chances of taking a win in this fight to be pretty good. Neither fighter has great finishing ability, so I expect this to be contested everywhere and go the full three rounds. Once more bets are announced closer to the fight, I think Cariaso by decision is going to be a good line, and you should bet it before too many other people realise the same thing.


Derrick lewis @ 7/5

A heavyweight underdog is always worth investigating, especially when its one that hits as hard as Lewis. Lewis is fighting Czech heavyweight Viktor Pešta, and is considered a slight underdog. Don't get me wrong here, I don't think Lewis is that great a fighter. It is just that he has ridiculous knockout power, and Pešta is going to be in trouble if he takes too long to adjust in the fight. Lewis doesn't have the gas-tank to win a decision, and poses very little submission threat. When the lines are released I would look at Lewis by KO in Round One. Any other bet is very unlikely to come off, but this is definitely worth a look.

I will be studying the fights more in the coming weeks and should have all my picks by Friday. I went 4-1 last week with three correct methods. I will be doing more fights this week, but looking to improve on that record if possible.

UFC Fight Night 75 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 75 sees the UFC return to Japan, with former PRIDE hero Josh Barnett facing Roy Nelson in the main event. We have a guest for the next few events, as veteran MMA fan and BJJ enthusiast Hugh Walsh joins me with his predictions. Hugh and I will keep records until the end of the year, so will now start at 0-0. Let's get on to the picks:

Katsunori Kikuno vs. Diego Brandao

Hugh: Both guys have been ko’d twice in their last 3 fights. This fight is tough because Brandao is so unpredictable. He’s had highs and lows showing up in and out of shape. On TUF 14 he came out swinging wild, and if he does that I don’t think Kikuno will be able to handle it.
Winner: Diego Brandao by TKO

Chris: The only thing I'm sure of is that this is ending early. Brandao has been ko'd too many times for my liking, but I expect his wild style to pay dividends before Kikuno has time to make any adjustments.
Winner: Brandao by TKO

Takeya Mizugaki vs George Roop 

Hugh: Both guys have been around for a while. Roop being an Ultimate Fighter vet, rarely credited as the guy that KO’d the Korean Zombie back at WEC 51.
Mizugaki is coming off a couple of losses to great fighters, all of his losses are to top level guys. I like Roop but I have to go with Mizugaki.
Winner: Takeya Mizugaki by Decision

Chris: I find Roop very difficult to predict, as he wins some fights he shouldn't but basically looks bad the rest of the time. Mizugaki was on a great run before he ran into Dominick Cruz and Aljamain Sterling, so he'll be looking to get back to form here. I am taking Mizugaki by decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if he cracks the chin of Roop before the end.
Winner: Takeya Mizugaki by Decision

Kyoji Horiguchi vs Chico Camus 

Hugh: Although Camus has victories over a couple names, most notably picking up a split decision over Brad Pickett, I’m going to have to take Horiguchi. I think he’s the more well rounded fighter, and in that division technique is everything.
Winner: Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision

Chris: I thought Camus looked good in his last fight against Henry Cejudo, and could have got the win if he pushed a little harder. His takedown defense was perfect, but this won't be enough against Horiguchi. Horiguchi is the better guy at this point, and while I don't expect him to get the finish, he should win convincingly.
Winner: Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision

Gegard Mousasi vs Uriah Hall 

Hugh: I deliberately didn’t look at any betting lines before writing this, but I would guess that Mousasi is the favorite. Obviously Hall is very dangerous, but I think that Mousasi will be able to get the win.
Winner: Gegard Mousasi by Submission

Chris: Hall has let me down literally every time I have picked him to win. He always manages to surprise us in the worst way possible. Mousasi is a veteran and has more ways to win this than Hall, and should employ a grapple heavy strategy. I don't think he gets enough for the submission, but Mousasi should grapple his way to a decision win here.
Winner: Gegard Mousasi by Decision

Josh Barnett vs Roy Nelson 

Hugh: This is a very hard fight to call. While Nelson has been the more active fighter, Barnett hasn’t been doing nothing. He recently became the first Metamoris heavyweight champ. But his last MMA fight was 21 months before this one.
When I’m really stuck on who to go with on a fight I use a friends system of evaluating their last 3 fights. But it’s hard to do when Nelson has fought 3 times since the War-masters last fight.
Winner: Roy Nelson by TKO

Chris: It is hard to count out Roy Nelson because of his ridiculous knockout power, but he is a fighter on the decline. 39 years old and he looks worse every time we see him. Barnett is a bit of a question mark because he has fought so infrequently, but he at least looks physically good and has been winning grappling tournaments while away. Expect Nelson to tire early and Barnett to take over, using the clinch and and ground strikes for a late TKO victory.
Winner: Barnett by TKO