UFC on Fox 2 - Predictions

The UFC on Fox 2 event is taking place tonight, and I am pumped. If you havn't been following, there have been a number of changes to the card in the past several weeks. Mark Munoz was originally supposed to face Chael Sonnen, with the winner getting a shot at the middleweight title, currently held by Anderson Silva. Munoz is injured however, and was replaced by Michael Bisping, who was originally supposed to be fighting Demian Maia. Maia will now be facing undefeated prospect Chris Weidman, who was promoted onto the main card after it got shuffled around. These are the three fights on the main card, and below are my predictions for the outcomes. I picked a couple of the undercard fights that will be of interest too, so if you have any of watching them, you definitely should. So anyway, first off:

Michael Johnson vs. Shane Roller

Michael Johnson will be familiar to anyone who watched season 12 of The Ultimate Fighter, with coaches Josh Koscheck and Georges St-Pierre. Johnson was a standout contestant on the show, losing to Jonathan Brookins by decision in the final, after almost finishing him several times in the first round. Johnson has great standup skills, and he could have the edge against standout wrestler Shane Roller. Roller is going into the fight with superior wrestling and submission skills however, and so if he gets tired of standing with Johnson, he will have the better chance of controlling the fight. Add to this the fact that 5 of Johnson's 6 career losses have come by way of submission, and that could be the key to the fight right there.

Prediction: Shane Roller by submission.

Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz

This is a tough one for me. Similar to Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer from last weeks UFC on FX event, you have two guys who can work in any situation squaring off. Both these guys have respectable standup, so expect much of it to be contested on the feet. Lentz also has serious wrestling credentials, and if he doesn't like how fighting on the feet is going he will probably be able to take Dunham down at will. Dunham has a great submission game however, so if the fight goes to the ground I can see him tapping Lentz out. This could be easier said than done though, and after 28 career fights Lentz has only been submitted once. A difficult fight to call, but I am going to have to go with Dunham to take this one.

Prediction: Evan Dunham by decision.

Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

Demian Maia is known as easily one of the best submission guys in the UFC, and his fight against Michael Bisping was going to be an interesting one, considering that Bisping has never been submitted. New opponent Weidman isn't as big a name as Bisping, but is young and undefeated, so we could still see a great fight. It is hard to believe it, but Maia hasn't scored a submission victory since 2009, with his last six fights having gone to decision. This could be due to the majority of his opponents time being spent preparing to block his submission game. Since Weidman is a last minute opponent, he will not have had as much time to prepare as he probably would have liked, so this could give Maia the opportunity that he needs to get the tap.

Prediction: Demian Maia by submission.

Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

I make no secret of the fact that Chael Sonnen is one of my favourite fighters, I love his trash talk and his rhymes, his insults and his ability to hype a fight. I also happen to think he is a great fighter, and his ability to take opponents down and beat them on the ground is second to none. That makes this an interesting fight, as Bisping has been known to have great takedown defense, and will no doubt be focusing his attention on trying to keep the fight standing, where he no doubt feels he has the advantage. Sonnen likes to be unpredictable however, and I could see him keeping portions of the fight standing just to keep people guessing, and perhaps because he does not have as much respect for the boxing of Bisping as some.

Bisping has also stated several times that he feels he has an underrated ground game, having never really been tested off his feet. We are definitely going to get a chance to see this, as I just don't see him being able to stop Chael's takedowns. Considering that Jason "Mayhem" Miller took Bisping down in the first round of their fight in December, and that his takedowns aren't anywhere in the same league as Chael's, it looks like this could be Chael's fight for the taking. This is Chael's fight as long as he doesn't get too cocky and let himself get dragged into a boxing match, and as long as he doesn't get triangle choked (fingers crossed). I expect Chael to take this one in a one sided beatdown that will put a smile on the face of Mayhem Miller and Jorge Rivera fans across the world.

Prediction: Chael Sonnen by decision.

Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

This light heavyweight bout is another difficult one to call. It seems like the winner is going to get to fight Jon Jones at UFC 145 in April, so I am rooting for Rashad so that we can finally see an end to his beef with Jones. Davis is undefeated however, and has better wrestling than Rashad, who has always had his usually superior wrestling to fall back on should a fight not go his way. Davis is a young and hungry athlete, but it does seem like he may have been moved up the ladder a little soon, however well he seems to be dealing with the attention. His game is also not as well rounded as that of Rashad, so the pressure is on him to control the direction of the fight and keep it where he feels most comfortable.

This fight seems to favour Rashad, and his superior standup could see him get a KO or TKO to add to his slowly growing highlight reel. If Davis manages to keep Rashad down he could frustrate him enough to get the decision victory, but I don't see this happening. Unless Davis pulls out a shocker of a submission, and becomes the first man to tap out Rashad, I think this is all Evans, going on to face Jones in April.

Prediction: Rashad Evans by KO/TKO.