Saturday, 7 November 2015

UFC Fight Night 77 Predictions:

After only one UFC event in the last month, the drought is finally over as we get ready for UFC Fight Night 77. This stacked card kicks off a run of roughly a card a week for the next month, and then three cards on three consecutive nights from the 10th to the 12th December. November and December should be a great couple of months for MMA, and I will be looking to improve on my 19-9 record for picks so far. Here are the main card picks for tonight:


Corey Anderson vs. Fabio Maldonado
Maldonado should immediately be at an advantage here with Anderson in as a late replacement, but it really doesn't feel like this will be enough here. Maldonado is a one dimensional boxer with no take down defense to speak of, and Anderson should relentlessly pummel him as long as he can avoid standing with him for too long. Due to the chin of Maldonado and the occasional lack of killer instinct by Anderson, it could either be a late finish due to accumulation of damage or a one sided decision.
Winner: Corey Anderson by Decision.


Gilbert Burns vs. Rashid Magomedov
This is a tough one here. On the one hand you have Magomedov, who is 18-1, having only lost once by split decision. On the other you have Burns, 10-0 with a very impressive 90% finish rate. This fight will be interesting if it stays standing, though Magomedov should have an advantage. If it hits the ground Burns will take over, and have a great chance of adding to his six career submissions. I think Burns is a good talent but in his last fight against Alex Oliviera he was getting soundly beaten before catching Oliviera in a late submission once he tired. Magomedov can't be relied on to get tired like Oliviera did, and he is too well rounded, with too much experience, to be beaten by Burns any way except by a sudden submission. I expect him to control enough of the fight to stay off the ground and take a decision.
Winner: Rashid Magomedov by Decision.


Piotr Hallmann vs. Alex Oliviera
I am expecting an exciting fight here, as both fighters are quite well rounded and have a pleasing style to watch. Oliviera has had a full camp for once, so I expect his cardio to show some improvements compared to his last couple of outings. Hallmann has lost his last two UFC fights and is most likely fighting for his job. While I think this could go either way, Oliviera has impressed me so far in his UFC career and I think he gets the job done here. A finish for Oliviera will most likely mean marching orders for Hallmann, but unfortunately for him that is the way I see this going.
Winner: Alex Oliviera by knockout.



Thomas Almeida vs. Anthony Birchak
This is my pick for fight of the night, as both guys bring it and are exciting bantamweight prospects. Almeida is one of the most exciting fighters on the entire UFC roster, due to his finishing instincts, wild style and lack of defense. This almost cost him in his last fight against Brad Pickett, before a jaw dropping flying knee added to his 15 career knockouts. Birchak is a serious threat on the feet too, and after watching him smash Joe Soto in June this should be a closer fight than the odds suggest. Almeida is a big favourite, but his penchant for getting hit coupled with the power of Birchak mean than this fight could see the chins of both tested. As far as underdog bets go, 12/1 on a Birchak knockout seems a steal. This is not a sure thing by any means, and I actually think Almeida will still take the fight. Someone is getting stopped, and I am excited to see who.
Winner: Thomas Almeida by knockout.


Glover Teixeira vs Patrick Cummins
I have picked against both of these guys in the past and been wrong, so I have had to approach this one carefully. Teixeira is 36 years old and had lost back to back fights before beating Ovince St. Preux in his last bout. He looked great in that fight, and even though he isn't fighting for his job this time I expect him to look good again due to his limited time left to get to the top. Cummins has beaten some pretty average fighters in the UFC, and lost to the only two notables he has faced in Daniel Cormier and OSP. Cummins' main weapon is his wrestling, and if he can't hit the takedown he doesn't really have that much else to offer. Teixeira is difficult to take down and equally difficult to keep down, plus he has his very accomplished Jiu Jitsu to fall back on should he stay down. Add to this his serious knockout power and I think Cummins is in for a very long (or very short) night.
Winner: Glover Teixeia by knockout.


Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort
This fight should finish with a Belfort knockout, no two ways about it. Dan Henderson is 45 years old and has been on a very obvious decline for years. While Vitor is not the destroyer he was a couple of years during his TRT phase, he is still a fighter tailor made to beat a slow, predictable opponent in Henderson. For Hendo, his most likely method of victory is his usual one, an early right hand to put Vitor to sleep. If the fight goes long however, Vitor is famous for fading, whereas Hendo has gone the distance quite a few times over his career. I just don't see his chin standing up to Vitor's fists and kicks for that long however, so this one should go to Vitor by KO. Hopefully Hendo retires either win or lose, as we have seen him in the losing column far too many times the past few years.
Winner: Vitor Belfort by Knockout.

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