UFC 193 Predictions

(2015 Predictions Record : 25-9)

This Saturday night the UFC travels to Australia, with UFC 193 taking place in Melbourne. Womens bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey defends her title against undefeated challenger Holly Holm in the main event. In the co-main event, womens strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk defends her title for the second time against Valerie Letourneau. The rest of the card features some interesting fights, including the return of a number of Australian fighters who will be looking to impress in front of their home fans. Let's take a look at the main card and predictions for how they will turn out.

Jared Rosholt vs. Stefan Struve
Heavyweight fights are always a bit of a toss up, but with this matchup we see one of the more consistent heavyweights in Rosholt matched up with one of the least consistent, in Struve. Rosholt does not have the finishing ability usually associated with heavyweights, but still manages to get the job done far more often than not. At 5-1 in the UFC, Rosholt sports only one finish among his wins. Struve is a different animal, having finished eight of his 10 wins in the UFC, while being finished in all five of his octagon losses. Rosholt's wins are all over fairly unremarkable competition, and Struve will be the most notable scalp in his collection should he get a win. Struves submission prowess makes this an interesting ground battle should Rosholt get the takedown, which he will no doubt look to do. If Struve can keep it standing he should use his long reach to his advantage, though that is something which he historically hasn't done as well as he should. It is very unusual for a fighter as young as Struve (27) to have as many miles on him as he does, but somehow I don't see more than a couple more fights in his future considering his health issues the past couple of years. Rosholt is a solid if unspectacular fighter, and I think his takedowns and top control should be enough to win a fairly lackluster fight here.
Winner: Jared Rosholt by Decision.


Uriah Hall vs. Robert Whittaker
This is an intriguing matchup, between a fighter on the edge of breaking out and another aiming to make the most of his current momentum. I have been wrong many times picking Uriah Hall fights, in fact I think he is probably the most inconsistent fighter on the UFC roster. He seems to have all the physical gifts but constantly lets himself down when he is under the spotlight. For every knockout of Gegard Mousasi there is a split decision loss to Rafael Natal, and it makes being a Hall fan very frustrating. Whittaker is a different matter altogether. After a fairly average run at welterweight, Whittaker moved up a weight class and has scored tremendous finishes in his last two fights. His ceiling at middleweight remains to be seen, and this fight will give us a better idea of how far he can go.
Style-wise this should be a fun clash of two strikers, with most if not all of the fight likely to be contested on the feet. One of Halls weakest points in his inactivity, sometimes he can do nothing for long periods and it has cost him decisions more than once. Whittaker has no such problem, and will bring the fight to Hall right from the beginning. This could be his undoing however, as Hall won't have a chance to sabotage himself and will be forced into action. I think the size and reach advantage of Hall will come into play, and the two will trade blows until someone goes down. I expect that someone to be Whittaker, as Hall follows up his biggest career victory with another finish to give him six wins in his last seven fights.
Winner: Uriah Hall by knockout.

Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva
I was beyond shocked that the first fight between these two went five rounds, even more so considering the shots they both took from each other. The two years since their original fight haven't been kind to either, with Hunt looking every day of his 41 years and Silva struggling without the TRT that gave his career a much needed boost. I would have bet the house on a knockout in the first fight, and even though it didn't happen I expect this one to make up for it. Bigfoot Silva has the weaker chin of the two and Hunt throws the harder shots, so I'll be surprised if this makes it out of the first round.
Winner: Mark Hunt by knockout.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valerie Letourneau
If you look at the odds, then this is the biggest mismatch in UFC history. Jedrzejczyk is as high as a 21/1 favourite in some bookies, a higher favourite than even Ronda Rousey. Whether these odds are accurate is debatable, especially since this is only Jedrzejczyk's second title defense. Add to this the fact that Jedrzejczyk will be facing a slightly bigger fighter for the first time in her UFC career and it seems surprising that she is such an overwhelming favourite. Letourneau is a fellow striker, and has faced decent competition at bantamweight, two full weight classes higher than strawweight. Those expecting her to be overwhelmed as easily as the undersized Carla Esparza might be surprised, so I wouldn't bet on an early finish. Given that this is five rounds and Letourneau will making quite a big weight cut however, I expect the steady accumulation of damage by Jedrzejczyk to eventually take its toll. While not as much of a mismatch as the odds indicate, Jedrzejczyk is a top fighter, and until she faces Claudia Gadelha again it is hard to see anyone having more than a punchers chance against her.
Winner: Joanna Jedrzejczyk by TKO.


Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm
There is not much to say about Ronda Rousey that hasn't been said a thousand times before. It is up to the Joe Rogans of the world to hype up her opponents, I'm just here to make an honest prediction. That prediction is that this Rousey fight will be more of the same, total and utter devastation. It will take a very special opponent to defeat Rousey, and I don't think Holm is that opponent at all. The only real question in this fight is whether Rousey will go for an armbar or try to prove a point against the champion boxer and go for the KO. I think she will do a little of both, using her grappling to throw Holm to the floor, and from there raining down punches for a TKO win in the first round. Don't take a smoke break during this one, it won't last long.
Winner: Ronda Rousey by TKO.

UFC Fight Night 77 Predictions:

After only one UFC event in the last month, the drought is finally over as we get ready for UFC Fight Night 77. This stacked card kicks off a run of roughly a card a week for the next month, and then three cards on three consecutive nights from the 10th to the 12th December. November and December should be a great couple of months for MMA, and I will be looking to improve on my 19-9 record for picks so far. Here are the main card picks for tonight:

Corey Anderson vs. Fabio Maldonado
Maldonado should immediately be at an advantage here with Anderson in as a late replacement, but it really doesn't feel like this will be enough here. Maldonado is a one dimensional boxer with no take down defense to speak of, and Anderson should relentlessly pummel him as long as he can avoid standing with him for too long. Due to the chin of Maldonado and the occasional lack of killer instinct by Anderson, it could either be a late finish due to accumulation of damage or a one sided decision.
Winner: Corey Anderson by Decision.

Gilbert Burns vs. Rashid Magomedov
This is a tough one here. On the one hand you have Magomedov, who is 18-1, having only lost once by split decision. On the other you have Burns, 10-0 with a very impressive 90% finish rate. This fight will be interesting if it stays standing, though Magomedov should have an advantage. If it hits the ground Burns will take over, and have a great chance of adding to his six career submissions. I think Burns is a good talent but in his last fight against Alex Oliviera he was getting soundly beaten before catching Oliviera in a late submission once he tired. Magomedov can't be relied on to get tired like Oliviera did, and he is too well rounded, with too much experience, to be beaten by Burns any way except by a sudden submission. I expect him to control enough of the fight to stay off the ground and take a decision.
Winner: Rashid Magomedov by Decision.

Piotr Hallmann vs. Alex Oliviera
I am expecting an exciting fight here, as both fighters are quite well rounded and have a pleasing style to watch. Oliviera has had a full camp for once, so I expect his cardio to show some improvements compared to his last couple of outings. Hallmann has lost his last two UFC fights and is most likely fighting for his job. While I think this could go either way, Oliviera has impressed me so far in his UFC career and I think he gets the job done here. A finish for Oliviera will most likely mean marching orders for Hallmann, but unfortunately for him that is the way I see this going.
Winner: Alex Oliviera by knockout.

Thomas Almeida vs. Anthony Birchak
This is my pick for fight of the night, as both guys bring it and are exciting bantamweight prospects. Almeida is one of the most exciting fighters on the entire UFC roster, due to his finishing instincts, wild style and lack of defense. This almost cost him in his last fight against Brad Pickett, before a jaw dropping flying knee added to his 15 career knockouts. Birchak is a serious threat on the feet too, and after watching him smash Joe Soto in June this should be a closer fight than the odds suggest. Almeida is a big favourite, but his penchant for getting hit coupled with the power of Birchak mean than this fight could see the chins of both tested. As far as underdog bets go, 12/1 on a Birchak knockout seems a steal. This is not a sure thing by any means, and I actually think Almeida will still take the fight. Someone is getting stopped, and I am excited to see who.
Winner: Thomas Almeida by knockout.

Glover Teixeira vs Patrick Cummins
I have picked against both of these guys in the past and been wrong, so I have had to approach this one carefully. Teixeira is 36 years old and had lost back to back fights before beating Ovince St. Preux in his last bout. He looked great in that fight, and even though he isn't fighting for his job this time I expect him to look good again due to his limited time left to get to the top. Cummins has beaten some pretty average fighters in the UFC, and lost to the only two notables he has faced in Daniel Cormier and OSP. Cummins' main weapon is his wrestling, and if he can't hit the takedown he doesn't really have that much else to offer. Teixeira is difficult to take down and equally difficult to keep down, plus he has his very accomplished Jiu Jitsu to fall back on should he stay down. Add to this his serious knockout power and I think Cummins is in for a very long (or very short) night.
Winner: Glover Teixeia by knockout.

Dan Henderson vs. Vitor Belfort
This fight should finish with a Belfort knockout, no two ways about it. Dan Henderson is 45 years old and has been on a very obvious decline for years. While Vitor is not the destroyer he was a couple of years during his TRT phase, he is still a fighter tailor made to beat a slow, predictable opponent in Henderson. For Hendo, his most likely method of victory is his usual one, an early right hand to put Vitor to sleep. If the fight goes long however, Vitor is famous for fading, whereas Hendo has gone the distance quite a few times over his career. I just don't see his chin standing up to Vitor's fists and kicks for that long however, so this one should go to Vitor by KO. Hopefully Hendo retires either win or lose, as we have seen him in the losing column far too many times the past few years.
Winner: Vitor Belfort by Knockout.

UFC 192 Predictions

Chris and Hugh are back for a second week of predictions. It is tight after only one week, with Chris (4-1) slightly ahead of Hugh (3-2). Still, it it early days, so let's see the picks for this week:

Jessica Eye vs. Julianna Pena

Chris: It is hard to tell where Pena is at right now, having had a long layoff followed by a quick victory over an unranked opponent. Eye will be a stiffer test, having fought respectable competition over her UFC tenure. Eye fades somewhat as fights go on, and Pena will approach this with her customary intensity, which should be enough to secure the win.

Winner: Julianna Pena by Decision

Hugh: Pena looked good in her last fight, if she can get passed Eye it would be pretty crazy. Eye is coming off a loss, but still very experienced. I’ll take the risk and say Pena.

Winner: Pena

Ali Bagautinov vs. Joseph Benavidez

Chris: This one should go exactly as expected, since Benavidez is usually as reliable a fighter as you can find. I also worry about Bagautinov coming off a layoff after failing a drug test. Benavidez should take this without too many scares.

Winner: Joseph Benavidez by Decision

Hugh: Have to go with Benavidez.

Winner: Benavidez by decision

Shawn Jordan vs. Ruslan Magomedov

Chris: I have already picked one heavyweight slugger over a more skilled opponent, but I don't think I can do the same here. Jordan is an athletic heavyweight, but Magamedov knows what he is in for, and if he plans right he should be getting the win here.

Winner: Ruslan Magomedov by TKO

Hugh: Jordan is a pretty exciting heavyweight, his last 7 fights all ended in KO, 5 of those went his way. I’d be happy to see Jordan win, but I’m going with Magomedov.
Winner: Magomedov

Ryan Bader vs. Rashad Evans

Chris: There are a number of intangibles in this fight, not least how Rashad will look after a 22 month layoff. Bader is on a win streak, but has always failed when put in the spotlight. I think this will happen again here if Rashad looks anywhere near his best.

Winner: Rashad Evans by Decision

Hugh:If this was a few years ago I wouldn’t think twice about picking Evans, but now it’s harder. While Evans has been out Bader has gotten a few good wins. Really hard to know, that’s what makes fights interesting though.
Winner: Evans by Decision

Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Chris: I'm not a huge fan of Cormier, but it is undeniable that he is a top level fighter. Gustafsson has never really beaten anyone elite and in their prime, and has seemed like his head is not really in fighting anymore. Cormier wants this more, and I think that will show through as the fight goes on.

Winner: Daniel Cormier by Decision

Hugh: I would love for Gus to win, and then there would technically be 3 European champs. I will be rooting for Gus, but my pick is Cormier.
Winner: Daniel Cormier

UFC 192 Prelim Predictions

Sage Northcutt vs. Francisco Trevino

Northcutt could be the real deal, or he could end up another in a long line of busted prospects. For now though, it looks like his athleticism and well rounded skillset will be enough to see off Trevino. Trevino is a good mixed martial artist, but I don't really see any area in which he won't be beaten by Northcutt, even at this early stage of his career.

Winner: Sage Northcutt by TKO

Derrick Lewis vs. Viktor Pesta

It is a crapshoot every time Lewis fights, as his outrageous knockout power means that any fight could be won at any second. This becomes considerably less likely, however, after the first round. Lewis does not have great stamina, and isn't particularly great at anything apart from sloppy ground and pound. Pesta should overwhelm him steadily to a late stoppage, but considering Pesta can have sometimes suspect defense, I'm going with the slight upset here.

Winner: Derrick Lewis by KO

Chris Cariaso vs. Sergio Pettis

I'll admit I questioned my pick for this one when I saw that Pettis is the slightly bigger man in this bout. Usually Pettis is outsized, as in his fight against Alex Caceres, and he has trouble handling this. As the bigger guy, Pettis won't deal with this problem. I still don't think that Pettis is that good, however, and I think Cariaso is just good enough to remind us all that not all Pettis' are created equal.

Winner: Chris Cariaso by Decision

Angela Hill vs. Rose Namajunas

This is another one of many fights where the upset is possible. Neither fighter has an extensive record, and Namajunas has been a bit of a busted prospect, hyped up on TUF but lost in the finals and hasn't been able to get a fight since. Hill has a pretty one dimensional skillset, but if she can keep it standing then she could give Namajunas trouble. I'm going to take the unpredictable Namajunas by something cool.

Winner: Rose Namajunas by submission

Adriano Martins vs. Islam Makhachev

This is a close one for me, because I can't help but think of the last time Martins fought a Dagestani fighter as the underdog, and put on a great performance against Rustam Khabilov. This could repeat itself, or Makhachev could be too much. Martins has a solid 4-1 UFC record, only falling to Cowboy Cerrone, but this one could be another loss incoming. I am going to go with my gut pick Martins to pull this out.

Winner: Adriano Martins by Decision

Alan Jouban vs. Albert Tumenov

I was torn on this one all week. Jouban is the bigger guy, and puts on some great fights with his reckless style. The problem with this fight is that Tumenov has the kind of style that should work well against Jouban. I expect this to be a great fight, but Jouban gets hit and dropped far too much for me to pick him with any degree of confidence. An upset is definitely possible here, but Tumenov should get it done.

Winner: Albert Tumenov by TKO

Daniel Hooker vs. Yair Rodriguez

I watched lots of fights for both these guys this week, trying to think about how the fight will play out. It could either go like the Hatsu Hioki/Hooker fight, where Hooker is losing almost the whole way, then gets the finish. Or it could go like the Yair Rodriguez/Charles Rosa fight, where Rodriguez comes out stong and puts on too much pressure for his opponent to handle. I think if it goes to decision then Rodriguez wins, and he could also catch a submission along the way. I think Hooker will find a home for his elbows, and get a stoppage after a couple of very exciting rounds.

Winner: Daniel Hooker by TKO

UFC 192: Best Underdog Bets

This Saturday we have a stacked event in UFC 192, headlined by light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson. There are some great fights on the card, and I will have full predictions up later in the week. Right now however, I want to take a quick look at a couple of the best underdog picks for the fights. Whether you bet, play fantasy games online or just like being right, selecting the right upsets can be the difference maker. Let's get started:


Daniel Hooker @ 9/4

Hooker has a tough task at UFC 192, coming up against rising prospect Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been looking good in his short career, but it seems people are either overestimating him or underestimating Hooker. I have a soft spot for Hooker after picking him at 5/1 to finish Hatsu Hioki in his last fight. While this happening again is far from a guarantee, I think Hooker has every chance of finishing a wreckless and forward moving fighter like Rodriguez. If Hooker can keep it standing then he should get the win. If it goes to the ground Rodriguez will most likely tap him. A bit of a toss up, so Hooker is definitely worth a stab at this price.


Chris Cariaso @ 7/5

Somehow people still can't seem to grasp that Sergio Pettis is not the same fighter as his brother, former lightweight champion Anthony. Both look alike, but “Showtime” is better than Sergio in virtually every way. Chris Cariaso is not a world beater, but I would consider his chances of taking a win in this fight to be pretty good. Neither fighter has great finishing ability, so I expect this to be contested everywhere and go the full three rounds. Once more bets are announced closer to the fight, I think Cariaso by decision is going to be a good line, and you should bet it before too many other people realise the same thing.


Derrick lewis @ 7/5

A heavyweight underdog is always worth investigating, especially when its one that hits as hard as Lewis. Lewis is fighting Czech heavyweight Viktor Pešta, and is considered a slight underdog. Don't get me wrong here, I don't think Lewis is that great a fighter. It is just that he has ridiculous knockout power, and Pešta is going to be in trouble if he takes too long to adjust in the fight. Lewis doesn't have the gas-tank to win a decision, and poses very little submission threat. When the lines are released I would look at Lewis by KO in Round One. Any other bet is very unlikely to come off, but this is definitely worth a look.

I will be studying the fights more in the coming weeks and should have all my picks by Friday. I went 4-1 last week with three correct methods. I will be doing more fights this week, but looking to improve on that record if possible.

UFC Fight Night 75 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 75 sees the UFC return to Japan, with former PRIDE hero Josh Barnett facing Roy Nelson in the main event. We have a guest for the next few events, as veteran MMA fan and BJJ enthusiast Hugh Walsh joins me with his predictions. Hugh and I will keep records until the end of the year, so will now start at 0-0. Let's get on to the picks:

Katsunori Kikuno vs. Diego Brandao

Hugh: Both guys have been ko’d twice in their last 3 fights. This fight is tough because Brandao is so unpredictable. He’s had highs and lows showing up in and out of shape. On TUF 14 he came out swinging wild, and if he does that I don’t think Kikuno will be able to handle it.
Winner: Diego Brandao by TKO

Chris: The only thing I'm sure of is that this is ending early. Brandao has been ko'd too many times for my liking, but I expect his wild style to pay dividends before Kikuno has time to make any adjustments.
Winner: Brandao by TKO

Takeya Mizugaki vs George Roop 

Hugh: Both guys have been around for a while. Roop being an Ultimate Fighter vet, rarely credited as the guy that KO’d the Korean Zombie back at WEC 51.
Mizugaki is coming off a couple of losses to great fighters, all of his losses are to top level guys. I like Roop but I have to go with Mizugaki.
Winner: Takeya Mizugaki by Decision

Chris: I find Roop very difficult to predict, as he wins some fights he shouldn't but basically looks bad the rest of the time. Mizugaki was on a great run before he ran into Dominick Cruz and Aljamain Sterling, so he'll be looking to get back to form here. I am taking Mizugaki by decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if he cracks the chin of Roop before the end.
Winner: Takeya Mizugaki by Decision

Kyoji Horiguchi vs Chico Camus 

Hugh: Although Camus has victories over a couple names, most notably picking up a split decision over Brad Pickett, I’m going to have to take Horiguchi. I think he’s the more well rounded fighter, and in that division technique is everything.
Winner: Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision

Chris: I thought Camus looked good in his last fight against Henry Cejudo, and could have got the win if he pushed a little harder. His takedown defense was perfect, but this won't be enough against Horiguchi. Horiguchi is the better guy at this point, and while I don't expect him to get the finish, he should win convincingly.
Winner: Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision

Gegard Mousasi vs Uriah Hall 

Hugh: I deliberately didn’t look at any betting lines before writing this, but I would guess that Mousasi is the favorite. Obviously Hall is very dangerous, but I think that Mousasi will be able to get the win.
Winner: Gegard Mousasi by Submission

Chris: Hall has let me down literally every time I have picked him to win. He always manages to surprise us in the worst way possible. Mousasi is a veteran and has more ways to win this than Hall, and should employ a grapple heavy strategy. I don't think he gets enough for the submission, but Mousasi should grapple his way to a decision win here.
Winner: Gegard Mousasi by Decision

Josh Barnett vs Roy Nelson 

Hugh: This is a very hard fight to call. While Nelson has been the more active fighter, Barnett hasn’t been doing nothing. He recently became the first Metamoris heavyweight champ. But his last MMA fight was 21 months before this one.
When I’m really stuck on who to go with on a fight I use a friends system of evaluating their last 3 fights. But it’s hard to do when Nelson has fought 3 times since the War-masters last fight.
Winner: Roy Nelson by TKO

Chris: It is hard to count out Roy Nelson because of his ridiculous knockout power, but he is a fighter on the decline. 39 years old and he looks worse every time we see him. Barnett is a bit of a question mark because he has fought so infrequently, but he at least looks physically good and has been winning grappling tournaments while away. Expect Nelson to tire early and Barnett to take over, using the clinch and and ground strikes for a late TKO victory.
Winner: Barnett by TKO

Three Fights I'm excited for this September:

Justin Gaethje vs. Luis Palomino 2 (September 18^th, WSOF 23: Gaethje vs. Palomino 2)

I'll be the first to admit that this fight is largely unnecessary. The first fight between these two only happened in March, and while it was a great fight, Gaethje won and won convincingly. He overwhelmed Palomino for a third round TKO, and that should have been that. WSOF decided otherwise, however, so I am just going to enjoy it.

Their first fight was an absolute brawl, reaffirming Gaethje as a must watch fighter and showcasing both fighters toughness to a ridiculous degree. At 14-0 with with 11 knockouts, it seems inevitable that Gatheje will be called up to the UFC or maybe Bellator, sooner rather than later. Due to his lack of defense in exchanges, we might just find out that he does not fare so well against top level competition. Then again, he is a very good fighter and can take a mighty amount of punishment, so who knows. For now all we what we do know is that these two have great chemistry in the cage. And while I don't expect the result to be any different this time around, I hope that the level of action is no different either. Mark your calenders.

Phil Davis vs. Emmanuel Newton (September 19^th, Bellator 142: Dynamite)

Ok, let me explain myself here for a minute. I am not exactly a huge Phil Davis fan. He has had some pretty terrible fights, and found himself being given the Jon Fitch treatment earlier this year, released after a split decision loss to Ryan Bader. Technically his contract ran out and he wasn't offered a new one, but for a top 10 light heavyweight this was pretty unexpected.

Davis only just turned 30, and I think still has plenty of time left to make it to the top. At Bellator 142 he will get the chance, facing former Bellator champion Emmanuel Newton. Newton has had much more exciting fights than Davis the past few years, and with two victories over “King Mo” Muhammed Luwal in this time, he is no stranger to fighting wrestlers.

While there is no guarantee that this fight will be good or even watchable, I will still tune in out of interest in seeing how a top UFC light heavyweight does in Bellator. Some no doubt think that he will climb right to the top, but I think his road there might be a little more difficult than expected.

Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson (September 26^th, UFC Fight Night 75)

I know it is strange to look forward to a Roy Nelson fight, but I think this one is interesting just for how these two potentially match up. Both are getting on in years, and at 39 for Nelson vs. 37 for Barnett, both guys best years are definitely behind them. Still, Barnett hasn't fought since being elbowed unconscious by Travis Browne in December last year. He maintains that this was a fluke on the part of Browne, and this is his chance to prove that he can still compete at a UFC level.

Nelson is also desperate for a win, having lost four out of his last five fights. A divisional mainstay since 2009, Nelson could find his job in jeopardy if he loses, and especially if he gets finished. Barnett won't want to take too many bombs from Nelson, so look for him to take the fight against the fence or to the mat. This might mean we get to see the grappling of Nelson after all these years, and whoever winds up on top first might end up the winner. With Nelsons cardio issues in the past it will not bode well for him should he not get the early knockout. 

Some interesting dynamics in this fight.